Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shades who wrote (65299)	6/21/2005 5:01:05 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

<I dont see a 10:1 ratio coming back though, that sounds like fantasy - where do you get that silly idea?> Have you heard of H5N1? When that combines with a fully-humanized influenza in what is called recombinomation of DNA so that the H5N1 can easily pass from person to person, then we will have more fun than we've had since the dark ages bubonic plague when a third of Europe was killed off in a couple of years. Let's check the current death rate: who.int 107 cases and 54 deaths. Graph of H5N1 deaths. x = deaths [cumulative] 19 Jan xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 37 25 Jan xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 41 02 Feb xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 42 11 Mar xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 46 16 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 51 19 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 53 19 Jun xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 54 The death rate is currently running at 30% and has been 50% overall. Note that the flu season for the northern hemisphere has finished, so northerners will have to wait until October, or maybe December, to find out whether they hit the jackpot next winter. But there is certainly a healthy pool of infection waiting to have a go. The medical people who know about this are wetting their pants. Here is a graph of the relatively harmless sars for comparison: x = 10 deaths. Cumulative deaths 26 Feb ? ..5 Mar x 12 Mar x 19 Mar x 26 Mar xx ...2 Apr xxxxx ...9 Apr xxxxxxxxxx .16 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .23 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ..6 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [478] You might recall that the death rate for sars was about 60% for those over 60 and much less, about 7%, for those under 40. That's because old people are very susceptible to respiratory diseases, with pneumonia being a very major cause of death even when there's no epidemic on the rampage. When there's a full-blast virulent epidemic, something like half the population gets infected in any year. The relatively tame sars killed most of the old who it infected. So you can imagine that the killer avian flu might kill 90% of those it infects who are older than 60. I believe it is highly successful with birds. Humans don't have a sacred immune system which prevents them suffering such stastistical mortality. We can drop like flies too if the right thing comes along. If the H5N1 kills 90% of the old and only 20% of the young, then of the 3 billion infected, there might be something like 800 million killed, of whom the majority might be those over 50 or 60. While at first glance, that might seem great for the undertaking business and casket production, I expect such numbers might result in more efficient corpse disposal. A quick wrap in some cheap cloth and queuing to place one's loved ones in a pile of others is the likely outcome. It's only with the luxury of modern economics that we can take a day off work and spend time going through rituals. With a funeral a day to attend, we won't have time to muck about. It'll be like a brutal war, with mass burials each day and bodies strewn around in profusion. With such a kill ratio of old to young, and so many of the population killed, I can imagine the young to old ratio going from 2:1 to 10:1 after the smoke has cleared. The economic effects would be great. Taxes could be cut dramatically as the pensions and medical costs for the old are reduced. Houses would be for sale galore. Immigration would get a lease of life as employers try to replace deceased workers. GDP would drop. Every cloud has a silver lining. The price of fuel would drop too as OPEC supplies would back up in the pipelines, with few old geezers roaming the world in dirty great RVs and 747s. More importantly, it's young people who buy CDMA cyberphones and to avoid face to face infectious conversations, people would maintain communication in mobile cyberspace, complete with video. CDMA sales would zoom. QUALCOMM would be one of the few companies to boom. Mqurice