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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (65415)	6/23/2005 8:42:07 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Speaking of collectibles, the State of Ohio has just discovered that it's been bamboozled on a major coin swindle: mydd.com As if we needed any more proof that Republicans are nothing but slimy greedheads and con men.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (65415)	6/23/2005 11:51:25 PM
From: shades	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

I come and visit you Jay, fleeing the starving wasteland known as the USA - and you pull out your babe ruth contract and I say ho hum, and you pull out your roman coin and my stomach grumbles and I say GEE NEAT, you pull out your 1918 bottle of wine and cook up some fresh veal picatta from your personal farm and then I am impressed. Those other dust collectors won't do much for me. Now I ask you, TEOTWAWKI happens - you have gold coins, babe ruth contract, and I have 1918 wine and the finest vegetable and herb garden in the region - why am I going to give some of my instant panty remover to you for a framed peace of paper? If the roles were reversed why would you slaughter one of your limited healthy farm animals to feed me veal picatta for a framed peace of paper?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (65415)	6/24/2005 12:39:55 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Collectibles 1 - About 2 weeks ago Barron's had an article about a Spanish fund which bought 'rare stamps' - looks like a Ponzi scheme based on overvaluation. Same thing is likely occuring in coins already. This week, Wall Street Journal had a report on sky high prices and demand for collectible Chinese furniture. Rather than furniture, I would consider jade - much more portable, less fragile, doesn't rot, fits modern decor.... It's easy to take a few pieces of jade on a commercial airliner....That's much easier than getting couple of chairs in to an overhead compartment. Jade is less fragile than complicated watches, and does not need maintenence. Besides, it is hard to imagine many older men being able to influence young ladies with a side table or a desk....

To: TobagoJack who wrote (65415)	6/24/2005 2:04:52 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74559

Spike to 100 USD per barrel of crude ? Yes. two versions - 1) Real disruption - Two hurricanes or CAT 5 hurricanes hits Gulf of Mexico All the Persian Gulf interruption sceanarios Civil war in Nigeria Civil war in Mexico Venezuela cuts exports by >50% Russia cuts exports by > 20% 2) Oil price ALLOWED to spike - a 'phony' run up, but prices will be real. Remeber the 'silver corner' of the Hunt brothers ? Silver went to $50...then the commodity exchanges, with US government 'help' (this is a guess on my part) changed the rules, effectively ending the silver corner. My guess is hedge funds, speculators, etc. could push the price to MAYBE $70 before Exxon, Cononco, Devon, Total and every body else takes the other side of the trade. Sure I'll sell you a barrell for $68 to be delivered in March 2006, or 2007, or 2008. Cost $22 maximum to lift. But, there might be a wink and a nod to the major commercial players...so they will let the price soar...WHY ? Well, 100 USD oil makes it MUCH easier to build nuclear power plants, drill off the coast of Florida, restrict SUVs, wear that sweater we got during the Jimmy Carter years... Or 'bribe' Saudis and Persian Gulf States for War on Terror Or support President Putin Or pressure China to do something about North Korea Or persuade Japan NOT to go nuclear because of North Korea. Now, a price run up like this will need some excuse - Some combination of : Could be strike in Norway offshore One good hurricane in Gulf of Mexico Venezuela cuts 15% Russia cuts 5% One or two tankers sunk in Persian Gulf. Or the 'lite' versions of the first group of events. *********** I think one of the worst outcomes would be Japan and South Kore develping nuke weapons because of North Korea. China doesn't want to deal with 1 million starving refugees, and they may value Kim Jong Ills ability to keep Japan off balance. China also want to develop and lift another 300 million out of poverty. 100 USD oil threatens that, both by making China's oil use wildly expensive, but also by kicking the #& out of the world economy - non-oil world trade might drop 20%. Also, price of copper, steel etc. jumps under cost push - comes down later as demand drops, but that first month is rough. I don't think China wants a nuclear Japan either... ****** Putin's not up for election The Saudis realize that Osama and friends wants their heads, not just infidels Japan hasn't gone nuclear yet and nuclear plants look like they will be built anyway.