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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (21546)	6/26/2005 4:22:24 AM
From: bruwin	Respond to of 78595

Yes, I agree, it is necessary to look at 2005 Revenues. But in the case of TWIN’s latest report, they are comparing 9 Months with 9 Months. There’s a 3 Month set of figures still to come. Personally, I like to look at the full 12 month picture and compare it with the previous full 12 month picture. The last 5 Quarterlies were not, in my opinion, terribly inspiring. However, there was a positive 3.1% up-move in its latest 3 Month T/O, so if that trend should continue then TWIN’s price, and Bottom Line, could benefit. I’m afraid I cannot agree with your "rear mirror theory". The best one knows about a company is what one sees in its LATEST Financial Reports. That’s when, in our opinion, one should be making decisions about a company’s future prospects. But included in those reports will be the prior financial performances of the company. One needs to see how trends have developed in certain critical areas of the Income Statement and Balance Sheet and draw conclusions from those calculations. As I previously mentioned, one is looking for those characteristics that ABOVE AVERAGE companies generally display, which generally indicate that they are probably outperforming their competitors and producing regular, and increasing, profits. This makes them more attractive to investors, who will then want to invest in QUALITY, and so produce a BUYING DEMAND which will, inevitably, raise the stock’s price. The 3 companies on my web site all exhibit these qualities, and one could have confidently bought in several months from their ‘start to rise’ and still have made very good profits. Yes, back in 2003 I wouldn’t have bought HANS’s stock either. But back in 2003 HANS wasn’t displaying the Critical Financial criteria that it started to show during 2004. If the "buy signals" you are referring to are those from Technical Analysis, then we may be on a different wave length. I have my own "horse and cart" theory, where the "horse", i.e. the performance of a company’s Fundamentals, PRECEDES the "cart", i.e. the reflection of those results in a company’s charts and Technicals. Therefore I prefer not to put the cart before the horse ! The quality of the financial reports that HANS produced early in 2004, and to follow, would have shown one that this was a company to consider investing in. We prefer to "sacrifice" an early bit of price increase until we get suitable confirmation that, fundamentally, things are going well. Because then one is not SPECULATING, but INVESTING. The one current aspect about HANS that may affect holding the stock, is whether or not it is entering the area of being too expensive. Yes, you’re quite right, there is not much about my investment methodology on my web site. That has something to do with that well worn ‘capitalist phrase’ which states that "there’s no such thing as a free lunch !" My contact details are there should anyone be interested to communicate.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (21546)	6/26/2005 4:22:38 AM
From: bruwin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78595

Yes, I agree, it is necessary to look at 2005 Revenues. But in the case of TWIN’s latest report, they are comparing 9 Months with 9 Months. There’s a 3 Month set of figures still to come. Personally, I like to look at the full 12 month picture and compare it with the previous full 12 month picture. The last 5 Quarterlies were not, in my opinion, terribly inspiring. However, there was a positive 3.1% up-move in its latest 3 Month T/O, so if that trend should continue then TWIN’s price, and Bottom Line, could benefit. I’m afraid I cannot agree with your "rear mirror theory". The best one knows about a company is what one sees in its LATEST Financial Reports. That’s when, in our opinion, one should be making decisions about a company’s future prospects. But included in those reports will be the prior financial performances of the company. One needs to see how trends have developed in certain critical areas of the Income Statement and Balance Sheet and draw conclusions from those calculations. As I previously mentioned, one is looking for those characteristics that ABOVE AVERAGE companies generally display, which generally indicate that they are probably outperforming their competitors and producing regular, and increasing, profits. This makes them more attractive to investors, who will then want to invest in QUALITY, and so produce a BUYING DEMAND which will, inevitably, raise the stock’s price. The 3 companies on my web site all exhibit these qualities, and one could have confidently bought in several months from their ‘start to rise’ and still have made very good profits. Yes, back in 2003 I wouldn’t have bought HANS’s stock either. But back in 2003 HANS wasn’t displaying the Critical Financial criteria that it started to show during 2004. If the "buy signals" you are referring to are those from Technical Analysis, then we may be on a different wave length. I have my own "horse and cart" theory, where the "horse", i.e. the performance of a company’s Fundamentals, PRECEDES the "cart", i.e. the reflection of those results in a company’s charts and Technicals. Therefore I prefer not to put the cart before the horse ! The quality of the financial reports that HANS produced early in 2004, and to follow, would have shown one that this was a company to consider investing in. We prefer to "sacrifice" an early bit of price increase until we get suitable confirmation that, fundamentally, things are going well. Because then one is not SPECULATING, but INVESTING. The one current aspect about HANS that may affect holding the stock, is whether or not it is entering the area of being too expensive. Yes, you’re quite right, there is not much about my investment methodology on my web site. That has something to do with that well worn ‘capitalist phrase’ which states that "there’s no such thing as a free lunch !" My contact details are there should anyone be interested to communicate.