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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (162497)	6/27/2005 5:09:54 PM
From: dougSF30	Respond to of 275872

Pravin, you really need to look at it in the context of the semis, and the overall market. AMD is a high-beta stock. It would be fishy if it were AMD alone heading down. That's not the case. finance.yahoo.com AMD and Intel have behaved THE SAME over the past 5 days.

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (162497)	6/27/2005 6:08:16 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Respond to of 275872

Pravin, RE:"The magnitude of AMD's drop over the last two days smells very fishy, but what's new?" The whole stock market is like that save a few gogo stocks. Even oil stocks get a haircut from time to time in the face of $61/barrel oil. Everyday joe investor is speculating on Real Estate, not stocks. The stock markets are just being jerked around short term by wall street types. Clipping a little here a little there. Rarely does one run.

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (162497)	6/27/2005 6:08:22 PM
From: KeithDust2000	Respond to of 275872

Pravin, It usually happens when you least expect it. I think Q1´s results have put an end to this, if Q4 didn´t already. If you toss a coin, can you honestly say "I really didn´t expect it to land on this side!"?

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (162497)	6/27/2005 6:59:53 PM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

"The magnitude of AMD's drop over the last two days smells very fishy, but what's new?" Interestingly it has been on very low volume. Perhaps the floor trader need to pad his/her lunch fund? " 1.It could have something to do with the near absence of AMD on retail shelves this quarter. 2. Or, it might have something to do with the strength of the dollar, which dilutes AMD's foreign earnings (majority of AMD earnings). 3.Or, it might have something to do with negative flash news leaking out to Wall Street." 1. Doubt it! Just no way Athlon 64 desktop units can double in Q2 (per slide 17) and CPG revenues be flat to down. 2. Doubt it! ForX is an exogenous variable and likely to be immaterial in the grand sceme of Q2 things. 3. Flash remains a huge unknown and certaintly won't impact Q2 positively. The laarger question is will CPG operating gains more than offset flash operating losses. Today the market is saying no. Tomorrow? "Who knows with this piece of Sht. It's always something. We just don't know when we will get hit across the head with that 2x4. It usually happens when you least expect it."* Usually plummets on the release of good news. You know the adage: Buy on rumour, sell on news. However, given the FX-57 news, the HP Turion win and the SUNW workstation win, it's difficult to imagine that AMD'll remain weak any longer. Those in for the quick turn got reamed out today. let's hope it's a classic whipsaw with AMD back thru $18 by week's end. "But, we should at least learn to expect it. "Please Sir, may I have another!" Lol. Nothing that some serious Q2 CPG revenue growth won't cure. Last year's Q2 CPG revenue declined by $20M to $555M. I can't see this year's Q2 revenues not increasing by at least $50M to a minimum of $800M for a 45% annual CPG revenue growth rate. (and I think I'm being very conservative.) The part that rankles is that, to me, it so obvious that AMD has entered a phase of serious CPG revenue growth, yet the market hasn't yet rewarded AMD. I continue to accumulate on the expectation of a significant price adjustment on or before Q2 CPG revenue posting.