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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jackjc who wrote (34907)	6/28/2005 1:04:45 AM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Its interesting that you find it easier to make money in real estate than securities. I have always found making money in securities far easier - just so long as you don't insist on having to make money all of the time. There are many times when the market will not accommodate you. Its sad to see people over-trade, you see them mistaking a stroke of luck for genius. The leverage in real estate can be as catastrophic as often as it magnifies profits. .

To: jackjc who wrote (34907)	6/28/2005 3:43:10 AM
From: Proud Deplorable	Respond to of 110194

This time its quite different as you will see as a protracted downturn shakes investors out of their spec purchases. A new Bullmarket cannot begin in RE in the future until EVERYONE thinks you are crazy for getting into RE and that day is a long way off but the trend is reversing as we speak and the smart money is getting out, not in.

To: jackjc who wrote (34907)	6/28/2005 10:04:57 AM
From: johnre	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

That was not our experience in the early 90's with ocean-front condos in Boca Raton. We bought many units for half their peak prices in the mid-to-late 80's. The amount of available inventory was large.

To: jackjc who wrote (34907)	6/28/2005 1:59:12 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

<selling dries up as few will accept the price drop> I am writing from Hawaii where this view of yours showed up in the decade-long slump from 1992 to 2002. Prices at the high end dropped more than 50% but of for the average house it was more like 30% and people simply put the house on and off the market rather than keep going down in price. The difference here this time is likely to revolve around the balance sheet of the owners. Asian buyers in the 80s had money from banks that did not want to call the loans. "Local" owners had better balance sheets and could weather a decade-long drought in prices. Will US banks who are fueling today's bubble sit around while today's speculators owe them money? Or will they foreclose. If they foreclose it is no longer up to the "owner" when they will sell or at what price. Prices in the vacation market could topple like dominos as the loans get called across the country.