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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (34962)	6/28/2005 3:49:10 PM
From: Canuck Dave	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Interesting silver blog. A few other points. You put a lot of credence in the 200 week MA? The silver "wedge" will probably get resolved sometime in late summer, so we've got lots of time. I think the expiration of the July contract has had something to do with the extreme commercial short position. It ceases trading tomorrow, I think. The coincidence with the fed meeting can't be ignored either. I have done a lot of work trying to get the straight goods on silver fundamentals, but I'm as much in the dark as when I started. The only conclusions which seemed relevant were yes, we've run 15 years of deficits, and no, as long as someone was willing to feed the physical market at these levels, silver was going nowhere. That "someone" now appears to be the Chinese. The US is out of silver stockpiles. I found out that up until the revolution in 1949 that China functioned under a (mostly Mexican mined) silver economy. The Communists confiscated huge amounts of silver which they now seem quite happy to feed to the market in an orderly fashion. Who knows how much more they've got. Western banks seem ready to lease gold to hold it in check, and China will sell silver. Until one of them runs out or decides to stop. Until that day, I think charts are pretty much meaningless. CD

To: mishedlo who wrote (34962)	6/28/2005 8:34:30 PM
From: jackjc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Don't like the wedge nomenclature, that is neither a rising or falling wedge, but a sym triangle. The 2nd chart shows the triangle has already broken upside but has little conviction as too far in to the apex. Has broken up half-heartedly and is meandering. These sym triangles favor a resumption of the uptrend but only a weak indication when this far in. I don't expect anything dramatic, but if enough people think it is important it could be. Otherwise agree on your other points. I have had several 10 baggers in Ag during past 5 yrs, and expect sev more.