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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shades who wrote (65642)	6/29/2005 3:02:07 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

The name "Fed Model" did not come from the Fed, but from some reporters and various macro stock market types who wanted a catchy name and wanted to write something about why you should give your full service full fee broker a pile of money TODAY. Best evidence is the Fed has never really used it, except as a simplified explanation of the relation of stock prices to interest rates. They have to say something, and often they can't tell the truth. "We are cutting rates because the strong dollar is procuding an Asian currency crisis which could result in a world wide depression" We pay Alan G and friends to act on those situations, not to provide headlines for the 6:00 news "Fed chief talks of worldwide depression, could your job be in danger ? Film at 11..."

To: shades who wrote (65642)	6/29/2005 3:42:02 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

I think Niederhoffer has blown up twice. About 4 years ago blew up completely - all account values went to zero. Other books in a similar vein would be John Train's books on Master Investor. There's a partial update out, read the reviews on Amazon to figure out which edition to buy. The efficent market academics are some times useful, I recall one study showing it usually takes a few months for ALL of the effects of good or bad news to be priced in. About 70% gets priced in by about 5-8 trading days. For something that will improve profits by about 20%, there will still be about + 5% upside left after the initial bounce. If you buy it on a small pull back, then get 5% in 3 months that's not too bad. Basically, I try to find mispricing, so I look for less efficent markets - small caps, obscure asset classes, out of favor sectors, and stocks where there is TOO MUCH GOOD NEWS. TOO MUCH GOOD NEWS - Look at Genetech, DNA. Currently my biggest holding. They are buying factories left and right to keep up with demand for their cancer drugs. If Merck gets dropped from the DOW, Genetech might go in. Obscure asset classes - Mortgage REITS, Energy royalty trusts, single country closed end funds, and the "land baron" companies - JOE, TRC, TPL, MLP, etc. I have to give Cramer props for publicizing those land companies. ******* New asset classes I may be looking at - 1)Warrants - not many on US stocks, however. 2)Convertible prefereds I will probably use the above 2 vehicles to play recovery - recoveries from near bancruptcy, business cycials, bad decsions, etc. 3)Spin offs - Haliburton may spin out their KBR, Kellog Brown and Root construction contracting division - that's the one dooing stuff in Iraq. Also has the asbestos liability.