Date: Wed Jun 29 2005 14:33
trotsky (@OT, non-gold stock) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
it looks like a stock i brought to attention a few weeks back, CSTL , has now begun to run. whether the move is sustainable remains to be seen of course, but it looks good so far.
Date: Wed Jun 29 2005 13:20
trotsky (permabear1) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
the fact that Minnesota's legal system appears to be stuck firmly in the Middle Ages is not necessarily a reason to be proud...just a thought.
Date: Wed Jun 29 2005 13:18
trotsky (Yorkie, 12:13) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
" They seem to have been extraorindary quiet when Saddam was around..."
golly, you noticed? number of suicide bombings in Iraq BEFORE the invasion: ZERO. number of insurgent attacks before the invasion: ZERO. and yet, Saddam's government gave away a free AK47 plus ammunition to every household in Iraq. the citizenry was armed to the teeth - and did not revolt. now they do. see anything remarkable in this little factoid?
Date: Wed Jun 29 2005 12:31
trotsky (dan) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
"On the one hand you call a tremendous supply overhang in gold reason to buy and on the other lack of supply reason not to buy PGM's..."
i NEVER said that. you either did not understand my post, or are misrepresenting my thoughts on purpose.
"Then you say all values are subjective, that's not what cash mining costs of production say on the bottomline."
the cost of production has nothing whatsoever to do with an object's perceived 'value'. if i build a steel sculpture that costs me $10,000 to produce, and the biggest offer i receive is for $50, then $50 is its value in the marketplace. it matters not how much it has cost me to produce it. the same principle applies to every other good traded in the marketplace.
Date: Wed Jun 29 2005 12:19
trotsky (traderneal) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
"I believe, according to Sinclair, the day Volker got appointed as chief, gold fell $150. "
then you believe wrong. gold only began to fall after Volcker had jacked up the FF rate to over 20%....several months into his chairmanship. the IMF and the world's central banks had tried to manipulate the gold price lower throughout the 70's, via massive sales - this manipulation attempt was a complete failure.
Date: Wed Jun 29 2005 11:49
trotsky (@SKI) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
i just read his two most recent missives, and although i'm not 100% SURE i've understood it all, it seems that the decision whether a 'true not XXX-ed out buy signal' or conversely, 'a super-duper master sell signal' was going to be generated depended on a single trading day's action ( i.e., gold stocks would have had to rise a certain percentage by Tuesday, i.e. yesterday, to generate the 'buy' ) . iow, TODAY's rise probably doesn't count.
with all due respect to SKI, this HAS to be nonsense. it is definitely legitimate to look for recurring patterns in markets and constructing a system using these patterns. however, the statement that a signal can be voided or triggered by a single trading day's expected action being delayed by a day or two would strike any experienced trader as being counter to all practical experience.
Date: Wed Jun 29 2005 11:37
trotsky (Yorkie) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
"I suspect it is mostly religous imports that are cuasing the trouble rather than regular raqies themselves." ( sic )
this at least is the official line, but i would rather strongly doubt it. foreign fighters probably represent only a very small percentage of the resistance. the bulk seem to be Iraqi Sunnis, mostly from the disbanded former military. they have infiltrated the 'government' and its agencies to an astonishing degree, as is evidenced by the extremely accurate intelligence they use in planning and executing assassinations. the religious nutter component may provide most of the suicide bombers, but the portrayal of the resistance as an imported phenomenon is largely self-serving propaganda by the occupation.
Date: Wed Jun 29 2005 11:27
trotsky (Yorkie) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
"I fear the society there has raised a generation that positively hate older folks. "
nonsense. these days parents are considered 'cool'. the conflict between generations that marked much of the 60's and 70's has given way to a mutual admiration society.
Date: Wed Jun 29 2005 11:24
trotsky (Big Bob@GDP) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
US GDP is overstated by approximately 3% , mostly via hedonic indexing.
the numbers in some subsectors are so distorted as to defy belief. for instance, between 2000 and 2003, a 13% FALL in nominal IT spending was magically transformed into a 58% INCREASE for the GDP account. this was incidentally the MAJOR component of the reported 'GDP growth' during the period. it is an incredible Potemkin village...dollars that no-one ever spent or received come to life with the help of doctored statistics.
Date: Wed Jun 29 2005 11:19
trotsky (traderneal) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
"I keep going back to Paul Volker's comment when speaking about the runaway inflation during the 79-81 period: "the only thing we would do differently would be to control the gold market."
it seems to somehow have escaped Mr. Volcker's mind that they DID try to do exactly that - and failed.
Date: Wed Jun 29 2005 11:10
trotsky (dan) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
"When you buy bullion you have a product that has an intrinsic value. "
absolutely NOT. there is no such thing as 'intrinsic value'. value judgments are always subjective.
Date: Wed Jun 29 2005 11:06
trotsky (@ the 'gold overhang') ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
it is patently nonsense to bemoan the allegedly 'huge overhang' of gold inventory. it is precisely BECAUSE gold has such a large stock-to-flows ratio that it is useful as money ( this is also the reason why e.g. platinum will never properly function as money ) .
gold needs to be analyzed as a CURRENCY , not a commodity. therefore, supply-demand analyses such as those propagated by both GATA and JP Morgan's gold analyst, that look at the primary supply-demand deficit ( i.e., the deficit between mine production and demand in a given year ) make no sense either. rather, one can say that gold is a commodity money the supply of which rises at approximately 2% p.a., which is one of the hallmarks of its superiority compared to fiat currencies, the supply of which rises at much larger rates at the whim of a bunch of central economic planning agencies.
Date: Wed Jun 29 2005 10:55
trotsky (@Supreme Court) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
in light of the recent suspension of property rights it may be time to recall that Justice Janice Brown was widely denounced as an 'extremist' in the US mainstream for her strictly constitutionalist views. here is an interesting blog from Mises.org that compares the statements of Justice Brown to statements by the nation's founders. almost needless to say, Jefferson, Franklin, Hamilton et al. would nowadays be classified as 'dangerous extremists' and 'enemies of the state'. it is a sign of the times - you have LOST the Republic, just as Franklin famously suspected you would one day:
blog.mises.org
Date: Wed Jun 29 2005 10:43
trotsky (@Afghanistan) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
when the Taliban were ousted ( which was certainly the one positive side effect of the US invasion, although in the end it mostly means that a different, more pliable gang of thugs gets to rule ) , i was astonished that things went so smoothly initially. the history of Afghanistan clearly shows one thing: no major power was EVER able to hold on to it after 'successfully' conquering its territory - regardless of technical and military superiority. both the Brits and the Soviets bit off more than they could chew when they took Afghanistan. now, a downed chopper and 29 dead GI's over the past few months may not sound like much in light of the constant barrage of atrocities from the Iraqi quagmire. but Afghan fighters have always fought guerilla wars of the slow attrition type. similarly to previous invaders, the coalition may one day find that the costs are getting too high. it's actually a pity in this case, as life for ordinary Afghans clearly HAS improved somewhat since the ouster of the theocracy ( contrary to the situation in Iraq, where the quality of life for ordinary citizens has experienced a shocking nosedive ) .
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