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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (34690)	6/30/2005 10:45:04 AM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

stockhouse.ca FYI SUBJECT: BULLISH FOR OIL ETC? Posted By: ENLIM Posted Time: 6/30/2005 09:58 EST « Previous Message Next Message » From message 100427 in the CWEI board. (I haven't checked the numbers). Happy cash flows, Enlim "NOWHERE in the last 40-some-odd articles of indictment about the American economy have I read: 1) That the current business cycle expansion AFTER the initial 7.4% tax cut in the U.S. has averaged 3.9% -- THREE POINT NINE PERCENT -- in a world that is growing at around 1.5%, excluding China and India. 2) That U.S. unemployment rates at 5.1 % are almost 50% LOWER than Europe and the REAL unemployment rate in Japan. 3) That more Americans are working today than at any time in our history OR that wage and salary rates have grown 10 PERCENT on an annualized basis, based on the revised fourth-quarter stats. 4) That household liquid financial assets have increased in the last three years in excess of household mortgages, financial debt AND household-shared foreign debt. 5) That the newly refinanced household is paying on average $500 LESS per month in mortgage payments than they did four years ago (on the same house, of course) and has about 12% MORE household cash flow in every state other than Florida (where property tax increases have wiped out refinancing benefits)".

To: mishedlo who wrote (34690)	6/30/2005 11:16:21 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

You act as if everone is fully prepared for a real estate bust, from agents, to mortgage brokers, to truckers, to plumbers, roofers, to HVAC installers No one, especially in the momo bubbble markets is even beginning to factor in the risks. If anything they seem to spend everything and more on RE investments and toys. Here's a blog post from a financial website by a stock trader who lives in SoCal and likes to windsurf in Baja: Yet another trip to Baja, down the 805 freeway through San Diego. Its been about 9 months. Again, I'm astonished at the spectacular rise of luxury homes, luxury apartments, luxury condos everywhere. The RE Bubble has gone global, with unprecedented residential construction going on in Tijuana beach area and Rosarito along the toll road. Took me 4 hours to get to the border from my office. Twice as long as usual. Traffic was out of control through San Diego. Road was completely jammed with luxury cars, SUV's, RV's, big trucks pulling giant fishing boats, ski boats, motorcycle trailers, whatever. Its summer. $60 crude has made no difference in travel plans. Traffic is worse than ever. Massive construction projects going on everywhere. Never seen so much concrete being poured, no wonder FRK is trading so well. Unparalleled consumerism is going unchecked, even at the famous "secret spot" where I go windsurfing, 7 hours south of the border. This place is out in the middle of nowhere. No motels, no resorts, just a dirt airstrip and crude camping facilities. Yet some of my windsurfing buddies have taken things to a new level. In addition to the few guys who fly in Piper Navaho airplanes, this new guy has purchased a Beechcraft King Air for the sole purpose of commuting to this spot on the weekends. He told me that the fuel cost for just a 500 mile round trip was over $1,100. I guess that's no problem. He says he can make the trip in less than an hour. His profession? Mortgage broker. Another guy has decided that he needs to top that. So he shows up in a Robinson R44 helicopter. Unheard of to fly one of those into Baja so far south of the border. The thing costs about $450,000, and he had to spend another $50,000 to get an extended fuel tank. Profession?? Real estate developer. Anyway, you get the picture. Things are definitely in full blowoff mode in Southern California. Never seen such prosperity. Ever.

To: mishedlo who wrote (34690)	6/30/2005 11:32:36 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Wages for many of the trades that do ongoing home repair and service which is not as cyclical will get squeezed considerably as new construction plummets along with the death of major home improvment projects. Many of those workers out of necessity will gravitate to were the more consistent work would be in a downturn. There will always be steady work for sprinkler repair, lawn service, roof repair, electrical, HVAC and plumbing on a recurring basis for older homes as you probably know as a homeowner<g>.