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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (65703)	6/30/2005 6:59:51 AM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 74559

Thanks for posting the Steve jobs speech. Pretty shockingly frank, and like many good things, short and to the point. It was publically known there was some tension between him and his adoptive parents, evidently caused by the intellectual difference between them. This puts this in sharper relief. Contrast with other well known college drop out from Seattle, whose mother was on the Washington State Board of Regents. I think one reason Micro-Soft started in New Mexico (Besides MITS being there) was Bill wanted to avoid dealing with his mother after dropping out of Harvard. Note that the love and loss part is about what he loves - work ! Here in Silicon Valley, that seems perfectly normal.... But it can be a big mistake.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (65703)	6/30/2005 7:32:16 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Viewed strictly from a future negotiating point, CNOOC recent announcements may have marked up the price of every oil asset in the world, from nearly exhausted North Sea wells to speculative exploration blocks off Tasmania..... 1) They have made it clear how much they and China want oil assets 2) They have shown that they have a huge bankroll, courtesy of the central government 3) Everyone in the world with an oil property now knows this, and they know that anyone else selling will know it too, so why take low offers when 1) means China will have to multiple assets. ***** Considering how much most Western oil companies want to sell to China, or explore in the South China Sea, you would think CNOOC could use that as a carrot to pull the firms into joint ventures, and then use China's lower cost of capital as an inuducement to set up joint ventures in other parts of the world. This could deliver access and effective control of oil at a discount rather than a high premium. With the cash flow from $50 + oil, there won't be much pressure on sellers to make a deal. I expect the premium for oil assets will be quiet high. I will bet some sellers are estimating how much oil production China needs to buy, and dividing that number into the 600 Billion foreign reserve to get an upper limit on what might be paid for each barrell of proven undeveloped.... By the way, your expectation of Chinese firms buying brands and market access was spot on. Lenovo- ThinkPad and Haier - Maytag obviously. There's also a nice patent position with some of the Maytag items.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (65703)	6/30/2005 10:33:08 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

I really liked Steve Jobs' address when I first saw it a week or two ago and already sent it to a couple of (Chinese as it happens) friends. GOOG is heading down. I think $267 is pretty certain, but anything can happen after that. If we hit $267, it'll add a few percentage points to my portfolio which will be good :) I'm easily beating the NDX index (my benchmark) so far this YTD. But I am behind you even with your 10% set back. The past 12 months though I am up an estimated 49% in USD terms thanks to leverage (now largely removed and deployed in the opposite direction) and the Aussie Dollar.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (65703)	6/30/2005 9:47:20 PM
From: brian h	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello TJ, Make sure we quote the right one here next time. 5 is looting. 36 is the one you are most skillful about - running away. :-) """""""""Sun Tze's Art of War, strategy 36, "loot the burning house".""""""" Sun Tzu's Asian Art of War: 36 Strategies Strategy 1 - Deceive the sky to cross the ocean. Strategy 2 - Surround Wei to rescue Zhao. Strategy 3 - Borrow another's hand to kill. (Kill with a borrowed knife.) Strategy 4 - Make your enemy work while you wait at leisure. Strategy 5 - Use the opportunity of fire to rob others. (Loot a burning house). Strategy 6 - Display in the east and attack in the west. Strategy 7 - Create something from nothing. Strategy 8 - Secretly utilize the Chen Chang passage. (Pretend to take one path while sneaking down the other. E.g., the Allied invasion of Normandy and the Pas de Calai deception). Strategy 9 - Watch the fires burning across the river. Strategy 10 - Knife hidden under the smiling face. Strategy 11 - Plum tree sacrifices for the peach tree. Strategy 12 - Walk the sheep home, just because it is there. (Take the opportunity to pilfer a goat.) Strategy 13 - Disturb the snake by hitting the grass. Strategy 14 - Borrow another's body to return the soul. (Raise a corpse from the dead). Strategy 15 - Entice the tiger to leave the mountain. Strategy 16 - In order to capture, one must let loose. Strategy 17 - Bait a piece of jade with a brick. Strategy 18 - Defeat the enemy by capturing their chief. Strategy 19 - Remove the firewood under the cooking pot. Strategy 20 - Fish in troubled waters. Strategy 21 - Slough off the cicada's shell. (False appearances mislead the enemy). Strategy 22 - Shut the door to catch the thief. Strategy 23 - Befriend a distant state while attacking a neighbor. Strategy 24 - Obtain safe passage to conquer the Kingdom of Guo. Strategy 25 - Replace the beams and pillars with rotten timber. Strategy 26 - Point at the mulberry and curse the locust. Strategy 27 - Pretend to be a pig in order to eat the tiger. (Play dumb.) Strategy 28 - Cross the river and destroy the bridge. Strategy 29 - Deck the tree with bogus blossoms. Strategy 30 - Make the host and the quest exchange places. Strategy 31 - The beauty trap. (The tender trap, use a woman to ensare a man.) Strategy 32 - Empty city. Strategy 33 - Let the enemy's own spy sow discord in the enemy camp. (Use double agents.) Strategy 34 - Inflict injury on one's self to win the enemy's trust. Strategy 35 - Chain together the enemy's ships. Strategy 36 - Run away to fight another day. (Escape is the best policy.)