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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ild who wrote (35096)6/30/2005 3:29:04 PM
From: ild  Respond to of 110194
 
Date: Thu Jun 30 2005 15:10
trotsky (mugwump@Gartman) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
thanks...have there been any other comments? i'm trying to find out if this is a situation were the smart money ( i.e., the option writers ) could be wrong for once.


Date: Thu Jun 30 2005 15:08
trotsky (art) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
it atually doesn't matter....market manipulation never works for long anyway. so the wrong conclusions may well be arrived at if one assumes it takes place and thinks it can succeed. it can't...and that makes it largely irrelevant.
the relationship between gold and silver i mentioned can actually be observed in the historical data - and it has been in force during both the times when market manipulation was alleged by someone and those when it wasn't. so it seems it's quite independent of that.
lastly, for how long have you heard that a presumed shortage in silver will lead to unusual price movements? i for one don't subscribe to the idea that this state of affairs could be hidden from the market or that it is possible for a manipulator to hold the market in check in spite of it.

Date: Thu Jun 30 2005 15:00
trotsky (does anyone have a link to Gartman's) ID#248269:
comment on the call position at the 445 strike?

Date: Thu Jun 30 2005 14:43
trotsky (mugwump@yield curve) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
not yet, but since everybody insists lately that 'this time will be different' , we're probably only one rate hike away from an outright inversion, which presumably will produce a secondary low in the gold sector just before the frantic rate cutting begins when it becomes clear that it's not different after all.

Date: Thu Jun 30 2005 14:40
trotsky (art) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
silver frequently underperforms gold. the determinant , as Steve Saville has correctly observed on several occasions, is whether there is rising or falling confidence.
in short, when market participants expect economic growth to accelerate , they will prefer industrial over precious metals and vice versa when they expect growth to falter. silver is caught in the middle, but has more industrial than precious metal characteristics.
the bond market is telling us that the Fed is about to create an economic bust, by slowing down credit availability. therefore confidence is likely to give way to caution and fear - and gold will outperform silver as a consequence.

Date: Thu Jun 30 2005 14:33
trotsky (AU_NB@gold price targeting) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
it won't work. Frank Shostak explains why:
mises.org




To: ild who wrote (35096)6/30/2005 4:02:49 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
Well, it certainly isn't a good day for the bulls, but if you look at the tape, the only thing down big are deep cyclicals, so it's clear the market thinks the Bullies and Pig Men will have their way as usual. Russell 2000 must be heavy in bully names, as it's holding relatively solid, sort of a half ass fade late? Homebuilders are up, junk lenders are doing just fine, thank you. The financials (XLF), as if nobody is asking how they make money with these spreads, is barely off. Consumer discretionary (XLY) and retailing is barely off, so people can still borrow to buy at SBUX and JWN. NAZ took kind of a late hit, so maybe they decided to classify it as cyclical, this ten minutes? Hey there's always tomorrow to get back in, must be confusing sometimes to be a fully invested fund of some sort? GOOG was up, so there is always something for the silly season crowd to play even on a day like today.

Clearly the thinking is that because everything slows down economically, they pretend there is deflation, then the party gets a new leg? The sicko reasoning on the financials can only be that they should push out the loans now as loss leaders, cause rates and bank costs will be lower later, and they can still make money. Mr. Creosote is smirking today, as he prepares to heave another one. He knows that for every layoff and "cost cutting", another round of cheap financing, will protect his profit margins, and allow him to move the merchandise (mostly securities and paper confetti). Of course his bond portfolio is always worth more too. How much more strange can this get?

The indexes that support the housing hysteria have barely been brushed over the last three hikes, and today was no different:
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