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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brendan W who wrote (21578)	7/18/2005 10:40:08 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78507

Brendan W, RRICH4. I'll follow you in for a few shares of FMD. As was stated, a complex business difficult to understand. IF business model is valid, they might have a viable business. So far they're doing very well. Stock's low price indicates the skepticism. finance.yahoo.com

To: Brendan W who wrote (21578)	12/3/2005 11:48:23 PM
From: Brendan W	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78507

Recent Activity. I took a full position in First Marblehead (FMD) with an average cost of $29. I sold some at $35. I took a full position in PlanetOut (LGBT) at around $8. This is the leading gay media company in the world with a market cap of $150 million. Its properties include gay.com ... probably the highest profile gay website (Alexa ranks it 917th among all websites), the Advocate, Out, and planetout.com. Revenues are growing pretty rapidly. The stock is not cheap, but I think it's okay given what I think is the probability that it will become a billion dollar company over the next decade. The company has begun to serve international markets, but there's plenty of room to grow. I started a position in JoAnn Stores (JAS) with an average cost now of $14.65. The company is an arts & crafts retailer that is undertaking a superstore conversion which is producing mixed results so far. I think the price reaction is overdone. Price to Sales is around .15, but they do have some debt. I have a large position in Cryptologic (CRYP), an online gaming company, with an average cost of $17.65. ROA is 16%, ROE 28%, forward PE around 14, revenue has more than doubled (organically, I think) over the last three years, and the company has a lot of cash. I started a position in Estee Lauder (EL) at $30. Forward PE is around 16 for a pretty high quality company. I started a position in FTD (the florist)at around $11. This an IPO of a recent LBO. I believe it's one of the top 2 floral distributors in the country where there is a big dropoff to #3. The forward PE is around 13. There is a lot of debt, but I think the company will be able to pay it off: they are putting up double-digit revenue increases. I started a position in Pegasus Solutions (PEGS) at $7.18. The company "...provides technology and services to hotels and travel distributors." What I find intriguing about PEGS is it has a near monopoly position as a "switch" to the GDSs. A lot of hotel reservations come through a switch instead of accessing the GDS systems directly. I believe PEGS has the more dominant of two switches. The company does not appear to be well-managed and there is takeover interest in it among holders that paid in excess of $10/share. It's trading near a 5 year low. I re-entered Pfizer (PFE) around $21 after selling at a loss at $26. The forward PE is around 11. I re-entered UST (UST) at around $38 after selling at large gains at $45. UST's yield is in the high 5s and the PE is around 12. I added to Wal-mart (WMT)... my average cost is now $47. I sold H&R Block (HRB) at a slight loss. The commission's proposal to simplify the income tax system makes a lot of sense to me. The probability that Congress would enact this is remote, but I think the impact on HRB would be devastating if most people could have the postcard or one-page tax return, so I'd rather watch on the sidelines. I sold School Specialty (SCHS) lots purchased in the $20s at $48.76. I have not re-entered after their sale fell through. I sold Cadbury Schweppes (CSG) at $42 (purchased mostly in the $20s). I very much like the changes they have undertaken, but the history of this company inspires some caution. I sold Valero (VLO) at $92 and Conoco Philipps (COP) mostly because I don't want to be on the receiving end of MTBE litigation against refiners. I will finish selling off all my REITs accumulated in 2001-2 in January. Stocks discussed: finance.yahoo.com

To: Brendan W who wrote (21578)	12/13/2005 11:55:38 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78507

I'll take losses and close BUD position. Constellation Brands has dropped in price, and I'll take a few shares now. BUD should work out okay - it's so dominant in the US market and has such good financial numbers. At current price, a buyer can get the stock under what Warren Buffett started his position at, I am guessing. And who wants to bet that Mr. Buffett's wrong? OTOH, it might take some time and patience for BUD to work out. The beer market shows at best lackluster growth. More and more people seem to be switching to spirits or wine. I notice more television stations with ads for hard liquor. Given the many brands that STZ has, it would seem that the fashion favors STZ. STZ doesn't have anywhere near the good financial numbers that BUD can put up, but it does show better sales growth. If the beer market does okay, I expect STZ's Corona to participate. An improvement in BUD's fortunes, doesn't mean to me that STZ's sales and earnings must consequently suffer. I'll guess that if STZ can manage its acquisitions, doesn't overpay for future ones, and can operate its far-flung empire, the stock ought to be able to increase back to new highs. finance.yahoo.com