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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shades who wrote (65782)	7/1/2005 9:05:16 AM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 74559

OK - because I know that a shock can come from anywhere (say a dirty bomb in Manhattan or whatever or OBL is captured (think that won't have so big an effect actually)) - I don't think the system is deterministic but stochastic by the way - or at least it is well approximated by a stochastic system - I use risk control by only allocating certain percentages to a given investment. They are pretty arbitrary. I don't use stops though because stops often seem to be taken out just as the market rebounds. And there often or usually is some recoil. I also tend to build up a position as I get more certain that the market is doing what I expect. I would never take a short position on fundamentals alone. Have a look at what happened at the GOOG top: thomson.finance.lycos.com All those big players got the same idea as me.... GOOG could be higher quite soon. At which point I will be long. Have you read "The Alchemy of Finance"? Soros was a chart reader too though in a much less technically sophisticated way. My whole approach could be called Sorosian but with a strong bent to TA.