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To: energyplay who wrote (65831)	7/2/2005 8:50:34 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

EP, I will state the obvious, neither pro nor con, and just the obvious. I think the author is spot on, because some cluster of overseas Chinese groups in combination had convinced the Clinton admin to send the carrier steaming through the Strait which then quickly scooted from the scene, because the PRC response at the time was interesting in that it was a first and obviously a practice, that subs were sent into open waters in some numbers. The PRC purchase and reverse engineering of the Russian Sunburn has only 16 aims, all very big floating cities carrying aircrafts, each of the 16. The day of the legacy aircraft carrier is over, and same same for the minor states as soon as they get their hands on some upcoming importable technology. Obviously the PRC is not ready for war with the US, to win, and as long as Taiwan behaves, as the US and PRC demands it to, all will be fine. I believe it is also obvious that the US is not prepare to engage China on all-out scale over Taiwan, and that probably is the wager the PRC military is making, and politicians warning about. I think the media nonsense about how the PRC military cannot take on the US machine is faulty, because the fact of the matter is however disproportinate, no winners, except Russia, India, Europe, and Brazil. Japan will be taken out in the first wave, on two concentrated industrial centers. Fact of the matter is PRC troops had directly engaged the US machine in Korea and Vietnam and Laos, and no particular big deals happened. All that for Taiwan? That is not how diplomacy and trade happen, sadly. The Taiwan authorities realize this, Lee Tung Hui not withstanding, as he is aged and has not very much to lose. The war, should it happen, will of course be at PRC's choosing as far as timing goes, because even if Taiwan goes declaration happy, the fact that the island cannot sail itself to California is a given, and as long as that is the case, it is still only a matter of time. When and if there is a actual danger of Taiwan going rogue against the wishes of the PRC and US, I actually believe regime change will be instantly arranged for, courtesy of both, by way of palace coup, perhaps arranged for by Chen's bodyguards, and that is how diplomacy and trade happens. After the nasty unexplained events that resulted in Taiwan regime change, a lot of noise from all quarters, confusion, KMT takes over, declares something or other, and all back to normal. The PRC and USA will always position against each other, and that is only inevitable and wise, but war? yeup, every so often. All-out? Hardly. Over Taiwan's self-inflicted plight, whether by popular will or political machination? Not realistic. Chugs, J

To: energyplay who wrote (65831)	7/2/2005 9:20:13 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

EP, a follow up to the obvious with the even more apparent, I think the aircraft carriers are useful in maintaining the illusion of a world under control, and the fiction is helpfully maintained by the cooperating states, all large states, because it suits them, in terms of asset flow, jobs, and amusement for all. The toleration by the larger states are fraying by the unilateral acts of the US in the past few dozen months, and new combinations and joint acts have taken form and shape, all due the new energy flow of what is. When, and not if, the dollar ceases to be useful, the fiction of the aircraft carrier backed currency will be exposed for what it is, a fiction that Maurice so cherishes. This is why the USD must stay strong, because on the other side of a weak USD is a chaos world waiting to reign. It is just as well that new combinations and neat permutations are happening when there is still some time left, before the USD is put. And so, how Unocal goes, a test score will be given. The USD to US asset link must be maintained at all cost, because all depends on it. I believe Mr. Shumer got the gospel from Greensputin and Snowjob, and so there is no 27.5 anything on anything. Unocal may or may not be CNOOC's, but it will not be because of genuine political machinations, else the show ends now, when all are least ready for it. This is how friendly takeovers happen, as in your home or your Unocal. What is it actually worth? I do not call the Maestro the Greensputin for no reason. He sold J6P, literally, by buying their souls. Chugs, J

To: energyplay who wrote (65831)	7/15/2005 9:05:57 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Continuing our timely pondering <<pointed comments>> stratfor.com Geopolitical Diary: Thursday, July 14, 2005 July 15, 2005 0613 GMT Maj. Gen. Zhu Chenghu of China's People's Liberation Army said something very interesting on Thursday. As quoted in the Financial Times, he said, "If the Americans draw their missiles and position guided ammunition onto the target zone on China's territory, I think we will have to respond with nuclear weapons." He went on to say that "we Chinese will prepare ourselves for the destruction of all cities east of Xian. Of course the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds … of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese." Zhu appeared to be referring to an American defense of Taiwan. In most scenarios, an attempt by China to invade Taiwan would be met by conventional U.S. forces, particularly naval aviation using a range of precision-guided munitions. These weapons would be used to interdict Chinese naval movements in the Taiwan Strait, including warships and troop transports. In addition to carrier-based aircraft, U.S. Air Force assets likely would be deployed to Taiwan, along with cruise missiles, to attack Chinese war-making infrastructure. In referring to nuclear weapons, Zhu's reasoning was that China would be unable to defeat the United States in any conventional confrontation. Therefore, China's only option would be to escalate the conflict to the nuclear level -- at which, although they would still be outgunned, they could still devastate the United States. What is startling about Zhu's statement is that he made it at all. He made it clear that he was expressing his own views and not those of the Chinese government and, more important, that he did not actually anticipate war with the United States. However, Chinese major generals, like major generals everywhere, do not normally engage in playful speculation, particularly when the potential warfighting scenario is not anticipated. Or to put it more simply, generals do not deliver hypothetical warnings about nuclear holocausts. But this general did and, at least to our knowledge, he hasn't been fired. Therefore, it was a message that China wanted to deliver to someone. The obvious explanation is one that is extremely hard to believe: that China is preparing military action against Taiwan and is warning the United States that it would not be able to intervene and, at the same time, localize the conflict and confine it to conventional weapons. If the United States were to intervene, the war would become global and nuclear. The obvious explanation assumes that China is preparing an invasion, and that is just incredibly hard to believe. First, China does not have the amphibious capability to support an invasion, even against Taiwanese forces. It might get lodgment, but logistics would be a nightmare. That might change in a few years, but not now. More important, why would the Chinese want to invade Taiwan? Symbolism and the occasional rhetorical dustup notwithstanding, cross-Strait business is more important to China than having a wrecked Taiwan administered by Beijing. So it makes no sense, except that Zhu said what he did. The only other explanation is the one we gave on the confrontation with Japan over textbooks: The Chinese, in economic trouble, are playing the patriotism card at home and this interview, as it filters back to China, enhances the image of the regime as a global player. Having the ability to play nuclear hardball is no small achievement and, we would guess, would be seen as a matter of pride by some Chinese. That is a lame explanation, but the alternatives are either that China is about to go to war or that a general was kicking back and having fun with some Western reporters. Neither of those explanations works for us, so we default to domestic posturing. It's been a long time since people regarded thermonuclear war as an option to be discussed. Yet here we are. Another sign that the times, they are a-changing.