Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (65847)	7/3/2005 5:44:25 AM
From: shades	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

"Therefore, investors need MORE diversification into MORE asset classes to both reduce risk and have a wider net to capture the positive results." Many distinguished people make the case for this unless you are going to be a full time 9to5 trader. Tax efficiency, indexing, low fees and the magic of compounding. How many here can claim annualized 11% returns since 91? Mostly well experienced traders here so most should be able to claim far higher returns than that over the same time period no? coffeehouseinvestor.com Can you outfox the box? Have you ever studied Monty Hall let's make a deal and game theory? Wall street plays this with you on a much larger scale no? The smartest woman in the world was challenged by many PHD's and it seems simple stats are too complicated for our math professors: en.wikipedia.org After this problem's solution was discussed in Marilyn vos Savant's "Ask Marilyn" question-and-answer column of Parade magazine in 1990, many readers including several mathematics professors wrote in to declare that her solution was wrong. An equally contentious discussion of Marilyn's discussion took place in Cecil Adams's column The Straight Dope. At least some of the controversy was due to the unstated assumptions in the version of the problem published in the magazine. This version does not say that the host must always make the offer to switch or that the host must always open a door to reveal a goat. Without these constraints other solutions are possible, so the question boils down to whether these are reasonable assumptions. Even with these assumptions explicitly stated many people argue the correct answer must be wrong. wiskit.com Unless you understand the motives and behavior of the game show host, all the mathematics in the world won't help you answer this question. This from the MASTER MONTY himself: "If the host is required to open a door all the time and offer you a switch, then you should take the switch," he said. "But if he has the choice whether to allow a switch or not, beware. Caveat emptor. It all depends on his mood." Don't forget - Wall Street is your HOST in Let's MAKE A DEAL! hehe Monty GIVES SOME great advice. Now at the time when Vos Savant released this - one of my friends who worked on mainframe systems that did all kind of financial stuff in the 70's and 80's and can recite PI for an hour told me this was a big thing - he was a much bigger geek than I ever was. He became very obsessive with this Vos Savant woman and trying to discredit her and how all the math guys of today were stealing Mr. Martin Gardners stuff from many years back. He likes that Marylin is wrong page - he has about a 165 IQ so she beats him though. But people far smarter than him are running numbers on how to suck you out of your money Energy. xu.edu University of Texas, Austin May 17, 2003 Bob McTeer President and CEO Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Congratulations. Today is the day you thought would never come. Thanks for letting me share it with you. I seriously doubt I’m the speaker you dreamed of having today—a president of a Reserve Bank. I’m your punishment for majoring in economics. I’ll try to make it quick and painless. Last month I had lunch with the smartest woman in the world: Marilyn vos Savant, the “Ask Marilyn” columnist in Parade magazine. According to the Guinness Book of World Records Hall of Fame, Marilyn has the world’s highest recorded I.Q. I told her I think economics is a good major for smart students, but if they are really, really smart, I’d rather they become doctors so they could do somebody some good. She said, “Yes, but doctors help people one at a time, while an Alan Greenspan can help millions of people at a time." She has a point. Or destroy millions of people at a time eh? hehe stat.berkeley.edu Know that data can be manipulated to tell many inconsistent stories Know that data analysis is not clear cut, and that many subjective judgments are involved in analyzing real data Now I went 2 vegas once in my life, I wanted to play with the kids at circus circus and eat all that good food for cheap. Now I was with my parents and a young kid and we were standing in line for one of the restaurants, they had this 250K slot machine that took 2 quarters. A patron way in front of us had put in one quarter, saw it took 2 and I guess couldn't find another quarter, I asked my dad to give me a quarter to play - when the line advanced and we got up to the machine - I put the quarter in - JACKPOT - my mom started crying, my dad was jumping up and down like a wild man - well at first they were ready to give us the money - but then they looked at thier cameras and said we only put in half the money and I said yes that is correct my dad later beat my ass for being honest - HAHA - after about 8 hours up in their office we were told they could not find the guy who put in the first quarter and even though they had him on video tape said they had asked and no one knew how to find him - so they couldn't give us the proceeds - now my dad argued hey - just give us our half and if you find him you can give him his half - but they didn't want to play - HAHA. Remember what MONTY PYTHON said about your HOST. hehe I guess I learned the house is only gonna come off the money if they really have too - so it goes with wall street. I always liked Marilyn vos Savant's statement on gambling (paraphrase): "If you lose money at gambling (the most likely outcome) it is a very poor way to spend it; you have recieved nothing except possibly a temporary thrill. If you MAKE money (unlikely) it is a very poor way to "earn" it; you learn nothing that would enable you to duplicate the result . . ." You have not created wealth, merely redistributed it.

To: energyplay who wrote (65847)	7/3/2005 5:46:52 AM
From: shades	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Now I don't know about you Energyplay - but if trading stocks took the smartest brain on the planet 5 years to get rich - why do so many dummies think they can do it? She married Jarvik - so maybe she didn't make a ton of money trading stocks - married into her money like Kerry. bookrags.com Bored with college, vos Savant left Washington University after two years and launched a career in stocks, real estate, and investment. Her real interest had always been in becoming a writer, but she realized that she first needed to establish a financial base with which to support herself. Within five years her personal investments afforded her....

To: energyplay who wrote (65847)	7/3/2005 6:00:22 AM
From: shades	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 74559

This is for General Chen and El Mat , Pearly Button and all the rest that want the FINAL conclusive answer on nature versus Nuture, this child playing chopin at 3 years old was not a product of NURTURING, I don't believe it for a second. absoluteastronomy.com Sho Yano (born c. 1990, is a Japanese American and Korean American boy who at the age of 12 held the title of world's highest recorded IQ with a figure so high that it was unmeasurable. He reportedly played Chopin on the piano at age 3. After scoring 1500 out of 1600 on the SAT at age 8, he entered Loyola University at age 9, graduating summa cum laude at age 12, and now attends the Pritzker School of Medicine at the University of Chicago in the MSTP (Medical Scientist Training Program) program designed to earn a combined MD and PhD. My friends at age 3 I don't even know if I was talking, I certainly was not doing something physically/mentally coordinated as playing chopin on a piano - this is the guy that will go to work for wall street to suck you dry, but you are gonna beat him and mega terraflop AI systems he programs to suck you dry - why would people believe they can win and beat Neo and The Artchitect?

To: energyplay who wrote (65847)	7/3/2005 8:20:15 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hello EP, I actually did not mean to imply hierarchy and deference in the political sense. I merely pointed out that folks who know not what they say ought to at least not say anuthing at all :0) There is a few hundred million in fees (4-ish) for the two banks involved with CNOOC. They will have to earn those fees, and they will have to dole out a bit as well, one way or another. By media, I was being very general. As to where would the Chinese USD go should Unocal not be, I figure not to Euro or Yen, but simply to other energy companies, such as Yukos (oops, they did that already) and Woodside (yikes, did that too), and stuff like that, or perhaps finance a takeover of Canada via the Cheung Kong / Hutchison vehicles. Spending money is not difficult. The follow-up question is what would other countries do with USD if free trade is no more? In a liquidity crunch, all asset classes gets hit, and being in all merely guarantees a market weight hit :0) I say buy energy, gold, and operating business where capitalism thrives ;0)