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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shades who wrote (65903)	7/4/2005 9:34:51 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Well a lot of this stuff I know and try to take advantage of. I don't doubt this Phil guy hasn't been a great success and whatever he is saying is selling advertising space for his station.... I don't believe he took over and reorganized companies without looking at the FA! As you notice I didn't short GOOG at 200 or whatever. let's see if I can make money off this. My current position overall is a beta of -0.25 or less so I am also almost market neutral like Phil. Trying to switch everything in and out of the market at the turning points is probably not going to be a good strategy. So I have long and short positions. And the long term capital gains tax rate is an important consideration. For example on the currency side, I don't try to time it. But I buy the Aussie Dollar (by buying Aussie investments) when it looks low and buy the US Dollar when it looks low and vice versa. Up till recently I sent most of my savings to Aus. But then I stopped and am accumulating USD. But I didn't switch everything out of Aus into the US. That's too hard to get right for me.

To: shades who wrote (65903)	7/4/2005 10:28:37 AM
From: Slagle	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Shades Re: "Phil" I really do like to listen to his show. I have discharged the battery in my truck twice listening to his rants and raves. <g> I had no idea about his background. Interesting stuff. Phil has said he pays his planner $50K per year and he also says that you should pay a good planner 1%. So by his own math he is saying he is worth at least $5 million. Of course he could be worth lots more in real estate or whatever or he could just be blowing smoke like he did with BUD. <g> I bet he is a heck of a guy in person. Over in Sarasota every other building is some sort of broker or planner and there he is just giving 'em hell. I bet they hate him. Phil is really a Bear of first order, even more bearish than any of these posters on the BB&R board (and that is really bearish!). He thinks its all going to blow up and soon. I think that sort of outlook hurts his performance on the long side. He says he pays no attention to the fundamentals, just the charts. But a great many charts look fine and these he never mentions, just his "dog" longs which have been a pretty bad bet. On the other hand he has done better with his shorts. Despite what he says about charts, there he does consider the fundamentals. Just look at X. He timed his entry into the hombuilder shorts back in the spring pretty well too, but to have made money you needed to cover when they went back up. When a really bearish market develops Phil may come up with some great ideas because then he will be in his element. I think a really big bear market is coming. The country is long overdue for a real recession and that coupled with an over-owned stock market is going to provide a real opportunity to make money with the shorts. But we are not there yet. Phil must think the hour is close though. He sold every stock, right? I think he is a little early but he may be right. TIme will tell, Slagle