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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (163725)	7/4/2005 6:09:20 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: The key is Intel's manufacturing prowess It will be interesting to see if we get a capacity update from AMD any time soon. FAB30 was originally built with a 90K ft2 clean room rated for 5K WSPW. They've since increased the clean room size, taken process development out of 30 and into East Fishkill and 36, and added some metal layers. AMD probably can process 7K to 8K wafers per week now. If they use half that capacity (3750) for Semprons, that's roughly 11 million semprons per quarter. If they use another quarter (1,875) for small cache X2's thats 3.25 million X2s. The remaining quarter of the wafers could be used to produce 1.25 million Opterons and big cache X2s and 1.5 million Turions. 17 million CPUs works out to a 34% market share... If the lawsuit gets Intel to reduce its extortion of the OEMs, AMD's ASPs could climb to, perhaps, $125 and that would yield CPU revenues of $2.1 Billion per quarter for Q4 this year and Q1 next year.... That scenario is more than a little too good to be true, but $1.5 Billion from CPU revenues in Q4 looks like it's at least technically feasible. All before FAB36 and FAB7 come on line, doubling AMD's capacity by the end of next year.