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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (65939)	7/5/2005 4:52:29 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

Traders say $100 barrel is now realistic forecast (Good for Ethanol) By Emma Winbergand Kevin Morrison Published: July 5 2005 03:00 \| Last updated: July 5 2005 03:00 Brent crude oil prices moved higher yesterday, extending the gains from Friday's late price surge on lingering concern about the ability of oil producers and refiners to meet the winter demands. IPE Brent crude for August delivery climbed as much as 1 per cent to an intra-day high of $58.10 a barrel, before settling at $57.94, up 40 cents on the day. There was no trading in the West Texas Intermediate contract because of the US Independence Day holiday. Data released last week showed more investors were speculating that oil prices could fetch $80 a barrel by the end of the year, with increased activity in options trade at this price on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Traders said there were also more investors betting that oil prices could strike $100 a barrel. One trader said investors were paying 80 cents for an option with a strike price of $100 a barrel for 2006. "The fact that investors are trading at options with a $100 strike price is significant because, until a month ago, the prospect of $100 oil price was fanciful. Now there is an active options market for a $100 oil price," the trader said. A report showed Russian oil production output rising 100,000 barrels a day in June from May, reaching a new post-Soviet high of 9.43m barrels a day, after eight months of stagnation. The data echoed last week's comments by Igor Shuvalov, one of Putin's top aides, that Russia would overcome a slowdown in oil output growth, one of the key factors behind the recent spike in oil prices. Concerns about fourth quarter supply shortages drove British winter gas and power and European carbon dioxide prices to new highs for the sixth session in a row. Winter 2005 gas jumped 1.3 pence to 74.38 pence a therm early in the session and winter 2005 UK electricity prices rose £1.5 an all-time high of £61 a megawatt hour. Carbon dioxide emission prices, which have risen fourfold since the start of the year after Brussels told companies to tighten their limits on emissions, hit a new high of €29.35 a tonne, up more than 10 per cent, before settling at €28.70, a gain of more than €2. Palladium, a key component in auto catalysts, fell 7 per cent at one-point yesterday to a near two-year low at $166 a troy ounce. Traders said the move had been exacerbated by thin volumes due to the closure of the US markets. Gold hovered above its 3-week lows in early trade at $426.8/427.5 per troy ounce, under pressure after last week's sell-off as the result of a buoyant dollar, which hit a fresh 13-month high versus the euro on Monday.

To: energyplay who wrote (65939)	7/5/2005 2:04:02 PM
From: Slagle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

energyplay, Re: "carpet stocks" MHK up 10% on the deal. I covered my short some time back, when the housing stocks rallied. I'm going to see what hometown gossip I can find out on this one. The #3 carpet group is owned by some Belgians and the top management in the three biggest carpet operations all live in the same small North Georgia town. All three of these families were the owners at one time but now only the Belgian outfit is family owned, #1 and #2 are public companies but still the top management guys are the original owners. Lost of egos to get bruised there and there has been long time heavy rivalry between #2 and #3. The MHK former ownership family, despite their fairly "losey-goosey" manufacturing operation are very civic minded and long time residents of the area, like the top guys at #1. The Belgians came there about 25 years ago and all the locals think they are nuts. In the beginning they tried to get the workers to begin the workday with singing a company song and lots of other Euro-land nonsense. The closest thing to charity the Belgians are involved in is the millions they spend on a stable full of race horses. Like I said, the locas think they are nuts. So now MHK goes and buys a Belgian hardsurface outfit. An outflanking move of some sort. The #3 mill has their main operations in Europe. I still think that MHK will really be a good short at some point, as soon as the housing bubble pops or a recession starts. Slagle