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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry J Costanzo who wrote (45619)	7/5/2005 12:03:27 PM
From: Cogito	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 213176

>>Of particular interest here is the possibility that a triangle pattern is being traced out......IF so, and IF it should break to the upside (around 39ish), it would be possible to set a measured target at roughly 48/50 or so.....<< MCHJC - Thanks for the continuing analysis. Very interesting. On the fundamental side, I have a feeling about the upcoming earnings report. If there is anything less than a blowout to the upside, the stock will get hammered. Somehow, I don't think we will see a big report. I think we'll see earnings coming in at a penny or two above the consensus estimates, with cautious forward guidance, and that will mean a significant drop for AAPL. This is based on no particular deep research. Just instinct. I could be wrong, and I hope so, for the sake of anyone who is long. - Allen

To: Henry J Costanzo who wrote (45619)	7/5/2005 1:30:53 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213176

I've been concerned about the triangle, as I've been short. I still think it is a 3-3-5.

To: Henry J Costanzo who wrote (45619)	7/11/2005 10:39:12 AM
From: RX4PROFIT	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213176

Today, CSFB Raised AAPL Q3 EPS .06 (.37), Rating Outperform • F3Q Results. Apple will report its June quarter results on Wednesday, July 13 after the market close. The Street is currently expecting revenue of $3.3 billion and EPS of $0.31. We expect modest upside to the Street’s revenue expectation, but expect up to $0.06 of EPS upside based on strong sales of Apple’s new Tiger operating system. • Tiger is the Key to the Quarter. We now estimate Apple shipped 2.3 million copies of Tiger in the quarter (shrink wrap, maintenance, and included with a Mac). We believe up to 1.3 million shrink wrap copies were sold, which will likely contribute $0.08-0.10 to the bottom-line this quarter, of which only $0.03 is included in our published estimate of $0.31. Our total software revenue estimate of $270 million could have upside to $369 million in the quarter. Our analysis of Tiger sales is included on page 2 of this report. • Mac Still Gaining Share. The strong Tiger number implies solid Mac sales, especially when considering Macs sold prior to April 29 were not included in the 2 million copies of Tiger sold by the week of June 5th (some users that purchased Macs post April 12 did upgrade at $9.95). We believe our estimate of 1.125 million Macs (+28% y/y) has moderate upside driven by strength in iMac and iBook. • iPod Maintains Momentum. We believe Apple will report iPod sales of 5.0-5.3 million units in the quarter, essentially in- line with last quarter’s 5.3 million units. Once again, Apple’s orders of key iPod components will likely outpace shipments, which has been a source of investor confusion for over three months. • Outlook. Apple’s shares currently trade at 22x CY05 NOPAT of $1.38 after eliminating $8.23/share in cash, and the stock has traditionally felt support at 20x NOPAT. Given our belief that Apple will beat consensus estimates and raise its outlook, we would be buyers of the stock ahead of earnings.