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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (34903)7/5/2005 11:53:58 PM
From: John VosillaRespond to of 306849
 
Out-of-Town Real Estate Speculators Seek Profits in Philadelphia

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By Earni Young

Philadelphia Daily News

RISMEDIA, July 5 – (KRT) – At 8 a.m. on a recent Saturday, 40 people boarded a chartered bus leaving mid-town Manhattan in search of financial independence on the mean streets of Philadelphia.

Their mission was to buy relatively cheap Philly properties that will provide positive cash flow as rentals or that can be quickly resold for profit.

Many of these economic freedom riders are New Yorkers, but at least one hails from Australia and another drove all the way from Chicago. Both came especially for the day trip arranged by New York City Cash Flow.

The Gotham-based real-estate-investment club isn't the only group bringing out-of-towners to troll Philadelphia's rowhouse neighborhoods for likely properties.

Every weekend finds cars with license plates from New York, New Jersey, Maryland, the District of Columbia and elsewhere cruising the streets of Mayfair, Tacony, lower North Philly, Pennsport, Italian Market, Mill Creek, and Grays Ferry.

These are not relatives visiting from out of town, but investors on the lookout for "For Sale" signs. Even when there are no signs, they've been known to knock on doors at random hoping to find an owner willing to accept a cash offer.

Philly has become the next-best-place for buyers who are priced out of overheated markets in Boston, New York, and Washington D.C., and, yes, California.

Not everyone is happy about the surge in investment activity. Some neighborhood organizers fear the decline in owner-occupied homes will have a destabilizing effect over the long term.

Tom Forkin, vice chairman of the Mayfair Community Development Corp., is disturbed by a survey showing that roughly a third of the 3,796 homes sold in Mayfair during 2004 are being rented.

"We're not saying we don't want people to have an opportunity," Forkin said during testimony before City Council last month. "What we're saying is... when you get to a certain tipping point, six, seven or eight houses on a block, that's when the real problems start to set in."

Buyers looking to purchase a residence have difficulty competing with cash-rich investors who often are willing to pay $10,000 above the asking price.

Their aggressive bidding has added even more heat to a real-estate market already boiling over. Overall home prices in Philadelphia have increased an average of 116.4 percent since 1995. Areas like Center City have seen values jump by 300 percent or more in the same period.

Although new homes and condos sell for $400 a square foot and up, it's still possible to find a sturdy, three-bedroom, one-bath rowhouse in a working-class neighborhood for under $100,000.

A comparable house in any of New York's working-class boroughs goes for $250,000 to $450,000 -- making it nearly impossible to make money off a rental.

Philly real estate represents an opportunity too good to pass up, says Doug Fath, a recent graduate of New York University. Fath, 23, has purchased four Philly rowhouses in the past year, and claims to have pending agreements on three more.

The youthful entrepreneur plans to sell his home in Queens and move to University City within the next two months to better manage his fledgling real-estate empire.

"I love Philly, but I didn't really know too much about it until I started investing here," Fath says. "It's nothing like New York, but then again in some ways it's similar."

Uhm.

Shortly after 10 a.m., the NYC Cash Flow bus stops at 2nd and Spring Garden to pick up Andrew Davenport from the city's Office of Housing and Neighborhood Preservation. Davenport is the first of three speakers that club leader George Greene lined up for the day.

The charter bus moves slowly through Northern Liberties, then up North 4th Street through lower North Philly. All the while, Davenport talks about the impact of city-supported community revitalization projects such as La Pradera, Ludlow and Cambridge and Richard Allen Homes.

Sharon Laing, the Chicago investor, asks about financial assistance for multifamily housing for low-income renters and the elderly.

Laing, who is African-American, says she is looking to make money by doing the right thing.

"I can go anywhere and make money, but I'd like to reinvest in the community," she says.

It is Laing's second tour with NYC Cash Flow. She had taken an earlier trip with the group to Baltimore, but was not impressed by what she saw in the Maryland city.

"I like Philly better," Laing says, still a bit bleary-eyed from the 12-hour drive from Chicago to New York the previous day. "It was well worth my money."

When she's not moonlighting as a real-estate investor, Laing works full-time as a project manager for an international telecommunications company.

Greene says the 40 day-trippers included real-estate agents, mortgage brokers, investors who already own one or more properties, and newbies looking to get into the game.

Greene says the investment club has about 2,000 members. "We're not selling property.

We're an educational group where people can find partners and put money together to invest," Greene says.

He says the club started gathering information on Philadelphia early last year, and organized its first bus tour three months ago. The day trip costs $117 for members and $175 for nonmembers, and includes a box-lunch and snacks on the bus.

Featured speakers on past tours included Kevin Hanna, the city's secretary of housing and neighborhood preservation; Philadelphia Housing Authority Director Carl Greene; several local developers; real-estate agents and brokers.

All of the speakers appear free of charge, George Greene says.

Local Realtor Sharonn Thomas, of C. Percy White & Associates, also hopped aboard the bus at the Spring Garden stop. Thomas has worked with members of NYC Cash Flow for the past year. On this day, the tour will stop at two rowhouses her firm has listed in West Philly.

"These people are serious about buying," Thomas says. "They come down by train or bus, and we pick them up and tow them around. We're averaging maybe 10 to 15 agreements of sale a week with them."

The investor business is so good that broker C. Percy White has hired a certified property manager to provide one-stop-shopping for clients who are coming here from all over the United States and even Europe.

These Donald Trump wannabes come in all colors, ages and income levels, White says. The 40 riders on the NYC Cash Flow tour include whites, African-Americans, Asians, and Hispanics. There are young singles, including Fath, and middle-aged boomers traveling in pairs or alone.

Some are on their third or fourth trip to Philly. Others, such as Joy Taylor, are seeing the city for the first time.

Taylor, 43, says she heard a lot about Philadelphia from family members who live in Pennsylvania. "They said there were a lot of opportunities and when I found the NYC Cash Flow site on the Internet, I was very excited. I knew I had to take this tour," says Taylor.

Taylor and her husband own a small restaurant in Brooklyn and two six-unit apartment buildings on which they did much of the rehab work. They want to tackle something bigger, but New York real-estate prices are too high.

Ideally, Taylor is looking for a property with enough space for them to operate a small restaurant, with additional space that can provide rental income, she says.

Several boarded-up buildings in Nicetown, an area west of Temple University's medical campus, catch her eye and she jots down the addresses as they flash by.

"I do see a lot of opportunities for a lot of development, especially for a small investor like myself," she says.

Karen Tully, 49, a graphic artist who lives in a 300-square- foot studio in Brooklyn's gritty Red Hook section, gazes longingly at Liberties Walk.

The collection of white sandstone buildings with apartments built atop chic galleries and restaurants "is exactly the kind of place I can see myself living," says Tully.

Tully is amazed to hear one of the airy one-bedroom apartments could be had for roughly the same rent on her studio in Red Hook.

Tully, who works from home, is contemplating leaving the Big Apple behind for a live-work loft in Philly. Just call the bus trip homework.



rismedia.com



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (34903)7/6/2005 1:17:10 AM
From: Mike JohnstonRead Replies (2) | Respond to of 306849
 
A $1.4 million trailer, up from 500k 3 years ago.

Just when you think it cannot get more insane, it does.

At some point it doesn't matter whether it is a million dollars, 10 million or 100 million.
Just pieces of paper with multiple zeroes at the end.
Eventually they will be worth less than the toilet paper.



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (34903)7/6/2005 2:46:53 AM
From: Proud DeplorableRespond to of 306849
 
And heres the doormat for their front door

forcounsel.com



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (34903)7/6/2005 11:29:24 AM
From: shadesRespond to of 306849
 
stpetetimes.com

Storms can blow deals on homes
When tropical weather is on the horizon, insurers stop writing insurance policies. That can complicate a house sale. Citizens is the first to stall for Cindy.
By JEFF HARRINGTON, Times Staff Writer
Published July 6, 2005

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Nothing, it seems, can slow the torrid sales of Florida homes - not dwindling acreage nor the threat of rising interest rates nor soaring land prices.

Nothing, that is, except a tropical storm or two swirling nearby.

As Tropical Storm Cindy spun toward Louisiana, the possibility that it could strike the tip of Florida's Panhandle was enough to convince at least one major insurer to stop writing policies in Florida.

Citizens Property Insurance, the state-run insurer of last resort for anyone who cannot find property coverage, stopped binding policies throughout Florida at 7 a.m. Tuesday, citing the threat of Cindy. That means anyone counting on Citizens' coverage to close a sale or refinance is on hold.

The stoppage may be a quick one, ending after Cindy makes landfall. But Citizens and many more insurers are expected to stop writing again if Tropical Storm Dennis heads into the gulf this weekend as expected.

Most insurance companies won't write new homeowners' policies in the Tampa Bay area if hurricanes or tropical storms whirl into a wide zone that includes the Gulf of Mexico, Cuba and the Bahamas.

It can put a big damper on real estate closings.

"When you cancel a closing where you have willing parties ready to go to the table, it's a terrible thing," said Barry Flavin, who runs Florida operations for the Talon Group, a title insurer that typically handles about 2,000 closings a month statewide. Talon's parent company, First American, has up to 12,000 closings a month.

Most insurers aren't following the lead of Citizens, whose portfolio includes high-risk coastal properties that are viewed as most susceptible to wind damage. Flavin and other title companies say there's been minimal effect on closings being delayed.

But they urge home buyers and refinancers to be prepared as the storm season has become active sooner than usual this year.

"What we always encourage our clients to do this time of year is get that coverage bound a week or so before closing," said Bruce Tigert, president of Bayshore Title Insurance in Tampa.

Last year, some title insurance companies reported that property owners were forced to cancel or postpone roughly half the home sales and refinancings scheduled during a hurricane-crazed, six-week span.

The quick start to this season has caught some off guard.

Tuesday's emergence of Tropical Storm Dennis marks the earliest date to reach four named tropical storms in the Atlantic basin.

Because of the first storm, Tropical Storm Arlene, Citizens briefly stopped writing policies statewide between June 9 and 11.

Many insurers take a regional approach to not writing policies during an approaching storm, but Citizens spokesman Justin Glovers said that's not practical for his agency, which has 8,000 agents writing its policies spread across Florida compared with a few hundred for fellow large insurers.

With 740,000 homeowners policies as of the end of May, Citizens is the second-largest insurer in Florida behind State Farm.

Every time a closing is postponed, Flavin said, there's potential for headaches or scuttling a deal.

Buyers can lose a loan commitment or a promised interest rate on a loan. In some cases, buyers planning on immediate possession have a moving van ready to unload; any postponement quickly becomes costly.

One worst-case scenario that Flavin has seen is when a buyer has a car accident or a heart attack waiting for the closing.

"Next thing you know," he said, "the deal is gone."