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Strategies & Market Trends : Playing the QQQQ with Terry and friends. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.K. who wrote (1166)	7/7/2005 2:42:55 AM
From: Walkingshadow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4814

Hi JK, << I think we're in chopping mode and tomorrow is just as likely to be up as it is to be down....One more swoon down before we head upward. >> That seems reasonable. Interesting regression channel chart on QQQQ, showing the current short-term downtrend. But if you extend the regression channel back to the end of the correction at the end of April/beginning of May, you get a different perspective: 139.142.147.218 This regression channel shows the trend since the correction ended. Now the short term regression channel in your chart has just about run aground at the lower rail of the medium-term regression channel in the chart above. This is exactly what happened at the end of April. I remember posting about this, because I could see that the lower rail of the longer-term trend would dominate the shorter term regression channel, and that was one reason I thought the correction was ending at that time. I think the same thing applies now: the regression channel above will dominate over the regression channel in the chart you drew. As you suggest, it is possible we could see a very brief dip back down to that lower rail (about $36.50 or so), but I think it is more likely that QQQQ has already lifted off that lower rail in the chart above. Yesterday's candle will offer some support, and I don't think QQQQ will get any lower than approximately the middle of that candle (which would be about $36.80 or so): 139.142.147.22 Note also there was a surge of volume at $36.90, and that reversed QQQQ for a while, and there was more volume when QQQQ revisited that level at the end of the session. Best case scenario for tomorrow would be a bit of a gap up, then a downtrend that is met with a wall of volume at $36.80 - $36.90. If that happens, I think QQQQ will move north and not look back. I still see QQQQ ending the week higher than where it started. FWIW, oil is currently just off the high of the session, trading at $61.53, another all-time high: futuresource.com Index futures are basically flat, but the session is still young. T

To: J.K. who wrote (1166)	7/7/2005 3:09:33 AM
From: Walkingshadow	Respond to of 4814

Compare the regression channels on these two charts of the $SOX also. Similar to QQQQ, the 24 day regression channel has already run into the lower rail of the 47 day regression channel, which sits now at about 418 and rising: 139.142.147.218 139.142.147.218 T