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Technology Stocks : ESLR - Evergreen Solar -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Oravetz who wrote (15)	10/13/2005 10:55:33 PM
From: Randy Ellingson	Respond to of 112

Well now, ESLR has certainly come a long ways and for me is an interesting story. The industry landscape has many interesting aspects now. There are huge incentives in place in Germany (expected, I believe, to spread to Spain soon). There are also sizable manufacturers in Germany (among others), including Q-Cells with whom Evergreen is partnering on a 30 MW plant being built and expected to be operation by summer of 2006. Potential expansion to 120 MW at that site. Japan has several of the largest manufacturers of solar cells, so in all, there is substantial competition in the field. But an interesting twist is the development of a silicon-efficient technology (string ribbon, in which a band of thin Si is pulled from a melt using two wires/strings to define the edges). Breakage is an issue and the severity of that should become clear within a year or so. But the material efficiency is critical because there's a dearth of silicon which is both hampering production and driving prices higher. My guess is that since ESLR is still somewhat small, having Q-Cells as a partner may be very helpful as they continue to grow. From a revenues standpoint, it seems they have their work cut out for them to merit the current price within three or four years; and the bigger wildcard is whether their potential competitive advantage will yield profits to merit further share price growth.

To: Jim Oravetz who wrote (15)	10/14/2005 1:03:06 PM
From: Jim Oravetz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 112

More shortages seen for polysilicon Mark LaPedus (09/12/2005 2:18 PM EDT) URL: eetimes.com SAN JOSE, Calif. — Advanced Silicon Materials LLC (ASiMi) will shortly end the sale of polysilicon materials for the silicon wafer industry — a move that could exacerbate the shortages of these products in the world market, warned an analyst. ASiMi’s move could reduce the worldwide polysilicon supply for the silicon wafer market by 5 percent in an already sold-out industry, said Paul Leming, an analyst with Soleil Securities, in a report issued on Monday (September 12). This, in turn, could also impact pricing for silicon wafers. “We look for silicon wafer prices to increase 5 percent to 10 percent over the course of 2006,” he said. As previously reported, leading polycrystalline or polysilicon vendors — ASiMi, Hemlock, MEMC, Mitsubishi Materials and Wacker — cannot keep up with huge OEM demand and are reportedly sold out of these materials for the next two to three years. Polysilicon, a material that consists of multiple small crystals, is used to make silicon wafers, solar cells and other products. The troubling supply and pricing trends for these materials could hamper the overall growth rates in the semiconductor and solar cell industries, according to analysts. Demand is enormous, especially for solar cells, which is gobbling up an inordinate percentage of these materials — at the expense of the silicon wafer industry (see May 20 story). Earlier this year, for example, Japan's Komatsu Ltd. signed a letter of intent to sell 75 percent of its U.S. polysilicon materials subsidiary, ASiMi, to Norway's Renewable Energy Corp. AS (REC). As part of the plan, REC plans to shift ASiMi's focus from polycrystalline materials for silicon wafers to solar applications (see Feb. 10 story). At the time, REC did not say when it would make the transition. ASiMi, the world’s fifth largest supplier of polysilicon, “has begun notifying external customers that effective January 1, 2006, it will no longer sell polysilicon into the merchant [silicon wafer] market,” Leming said in the report. For 2005, the company has a total capacity of 3,000 metric tonnes for polysilicon material production, he said in the report. Some 2,800 metric tonnes are geared for silicon wafers, while the remaining portion is aimed for solar panels, he said. In total, the worldwide production of polysilicon materials is expected to hit 36,100 metric tonnes in 2005. Some 21,200 metric tonnes are geared for wafers while 14,900 are aimed for solar panels, he said.