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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (21620)	7/7/2005 2:53:33 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78679

Hi Paul - I looked at the history you posted on your PHS investment and it looked like it was quite a ride. Was there any one indicator over that time span that convinced you that this stock was going to turn around? Could you see anything from the insider trades? I owned one stock that is in a very cyclical business that went from $10 to $70 and back down to $5 over a six year period. My best indicator was that the CEO always loaded up the truck and bought shares at or near the low. He used real money not stock obtained from options. I find it extremely helpful to go back through my trades (both good and bad) to see what I did right, what went wrong and if I could learn anything for future investments. A lot of it always seems to come back to management which is very difficult to quantify. In the case of PHS, that problem was fixed by another company buying them out and using their very successful management to return better value to the shareholder. I have owned a few value propositions where management just ran the company (and their assets) into the ground. By the time the shareholders revolted and installed a new management group it was too late or the eventual turnaround took much longer. What I have learned is if the "management" problem is not nipped in the bud quickly and a new team is installed (or the company is broken up and sold), it's going to be a looser and you must sell and cut your losses. I commend you with your patience on PHS. If you ever come up with an answer on how to quantify a successful management team please share. I know that it is not the amount they get paid. The best I can tell is past history but this test goes bad too. Remember "Chain Saw Al" at Sunbeam. EKS

To: Paul Senior who wrote (21620)	10/6/2005 12:39:25 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78679

Masco is down today, as are other home building/remodeling stocks. Higher interst rate threats and profit taking (or loss-taking) have sharply dropped many of these stocks lately. I'll up my position in MAS for reasons stated in prior post. Stock a little expensive for the returns you get on p/bk. Still, on a p/e, p/sales, p/bk and maybe (I haven't checked) on a relative dividend yield - the stock is inexpensive (if one assumes demand for Masco's products will not diminish). finance.yahoo.com ------------- I've not been shaken out - yet - in the positions I hold in the several stocks in these areas (stickbuilders and their suppliers)... but I've been tempted -g-.