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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (71448)	7/7/2005 9:05:05 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

You can do the same for an indicator.... and see if the result looks plausible. A good simple trend model in Excel is a2 = a1+x+rand()*x-0.5abs(x) where x is the amount you want the trend to decline or increase by each day or month. Now you could get fancier with normally distributed errors and stuff, but I doubt the gain would be much.... You can make the trend more or less noisy of course (just remember to deduct the mean of the noise which is the last term here).