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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (35650)	7/9/2005 3:32:12 PM
From: regli	Respond to of 110194

I think you are severely underestimating the coming bust. Corporate balance sheets are in good shape because of the spending triggered by the housing boom. Given the fact that wages and the labor market are stagnant, I don't see much room for your scenario especially in light of Chinese competition in manufacturing and Indian competition in services. Even a worldwide bust will not remove these players from the field of competition anymore. An additional issue will likely be a more immediate than desired FOREX adjustment as result of a badly out of shape foreign trade deficit. Here is another morsel to consider: financialsense.com It also indirectly measures rates of growth and shrinkage in derivates. In my opinion, most everyone who is aware of the issues with derivatives don’t take into account both their size (at least 4 times the size of the world stock markets) and their potential for shrinkage (with losses in hedge funds for example) when talking about future inflation.