Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (35669)	7/10/2005 12:07:36 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

<why are the stocks looking so strong? > A fair question: I would say it's a pervasive, complacent belief in the Greenspan put, or what I term the Wizard of Oz syndrome. On the macrolevel as long as credit expands briskly, then debtors have the ability to borrow more and to artificially support the collateral needed for creditors to pretend their assets are actually worth the price on today's Quotron machine. This in turn translates in sustaining consumer spending. In real time, business for financials and consumers looks intact (although there is increasing evidence of spottiness in real life). Of course the more they then borrow in the latest round, the more heroin will be required for the next high. The rate "conundrum", and massive spec short squeeze () in rates, has given Leviathan a gasp of fresh air. Once credit growth stalls (), the equation quickly changes. I'm not exactly sure what the stall air speed is, but don't think it will take much. () Suggests squeeze potential is exhausted: Spec shorts ten year Treasury: March 8: 471,085 July 5: 74,782 (**)Total bank "credit", more erratic and sputtering. March 23-June 5 stalled, then the big bond rally, caused surge May 4-June 8, now stalling again, even with 10 year barely over 4.0%. 12/29/2004 6764.0 01/05/2005 6826.8 01/12/2005 6862.2 01/19/2005 6898.5 01/26/2005 6912.5 02/02/2005 6960.5 02/09/2005 6966.3 02/16/2005 6982.3 02/23/2005 7029.4 03/02/2005 7040.5 03/09/2005 7066.0 03/16/2005 7108.4 03/23/2005 7111.0 03/30/2005 7070.2 04/06/2005 7099.2 04/13/2005 7090.7 04/20/2005 7116.5 04/27/2005 7120.8 05/04/2005 7117.9 05/11/2005 7135.0 05/18/2005 7134.4 05/25/2005 7180.6 06/01/2005 7211.2 06/08/2005 7217.1 06/15/2005 7169.5 06/22/2005 7232.2 06/29/2005 7201.3 Real estate and HELOC lending is steady (about an 8% annualized growth rate last 12 weeks), but not booming: 04/06/2005 2677.7 04/13/2005 2676.2 04/20/2005 2682.0 04/27/2005 2678.9 05/04/2005 2681.3 05/11/2005 2684.7 05/18/2005 2674.5 05/25/2005 2684.4 06/01/2005 2697.4 06/08/2005 2712.0 06/15/2005 2722.5 06/22/2005 2732.3 06/29/2005 2725.8 03/30/2005 418.8 04/06/2005 419.2 04/13/2005 419.8 04/20/2005 419.7 04/27/2005 421.6 05/04/2005 421.9 05/11/2005 423.0 05/18/2005 423.1 05/25/2005 424.3 06/01/2005 426.0 06/08/2005 426.2 06/15/2005 426.9 06/22/2005 427.1 06/29/2005 428.1 Consumer lending has complete stalled, I wonder about second quarter earnings in comsumer economy? 03/09/2005 704.9 03/16/2005 708.2 03/23/2005 709.6 03/30/2005 712.8 04/06/2005 711.3 04/13/2005 709.4 04/20/2005 713.6 04/27/2005 713.9 05/04/2005 706.1 05/11/2005 702.5 05/18/2005 705.5 05/25/2005 705.9 06/01/2005 704.3 06/08/2005 707.5 06/15/2005 708.5 06/22/2005 711.3 06/29/2005 705.3

To: John Vosilla who wrote (35669)	7/10/2005 12:26:17 PM
From: philv	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Maybe the world is awash with cash, but only because of all the money printing that has been going on. Awash with cash because the world is awash with debt. Trouble is, the debt resides in one place, and the cash in another.