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Pastimes : HURRICANE SEASON 2005 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (7)	7/14/2005 6:36:17 AM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14

Hurricane Emily in the southeastern Caribbean A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA. AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES. AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO ARE DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CUMANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATER THIS MORNING. As of 5 a.m. EDT, Hurricane Emily was centered at 12.3 north, 62.3 west, or about 45 miles west-northwest of the island of Grenada. The estimated central pressure is 991 millibars (29.26 inches). Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 90 mph with higher gusts. Emily is moving toward the west at 18 mph and is expected to turn slightly north of west during the next 24 hours. Emily is moving into, and should stay, in a mostly favorable environment for intensification. Shear remains low, average surface pressures in the area remain low and water temperatures remain high. We believe that Emily will track across the southeastern Caribbean and intensify into a category 2 hurricane by tomorrow, as it moves away from the northern part of South America. It should take a track south of Hispaniola tomorrow and tomorrow night and is on a course that will take it close to or just south of Jamaica Saturday and Saturday night. Emily has the potential to strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane this weekend on its way toward the Yucatan Peninsula by early next week. Emily poses a threat to the south Texas Coast sometime during the middle of next week. The large high pressure area over northern Florida and into the northern Gulf of Mexico remains stronger now than what it was when Dennis was moving into the Gulf. So, it could be that this Atlantic ridge will be strong enough to guide Emily more westward, toward the Yucatan Sunday night. Emily should end up in the southern Gulf of Mexico by Monday of next week. A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic, along 35 west, south of 17 north has weakened. A Quickscat pass during the afternoon does show some circulation. The cloud area associated with this wave still looks impressive and there is still some chance this feature could become better organized. But trends in the clouds do not indicate any important development just yet. This is one of those systems that could wrap up quickly in a matter of a few hours. So, we will keep a very close watch on this system. If it wraps up and organizes it could become our next tropical depression. Elsewhere in the Tropical Atlantic, a tropical wave along 41 west, south of 16 north remains very weak. The tropical wave in the westernmost Caribbean is still roughly along 86 west, south of 18 north, moving westward into Central America. GZ