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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (35800)	7/11/2005 11:39:13 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

They are making two mistakes: First, the B/D model is BEFORE the seasonal adjustment, so it hasn't accounted for 96% of the jobs created. Second, the B/D model is only for the most recent months. The BLS revises each month twice, and during the revisions they remove the B/D numbers and replace them with actuals. So the B/D is not cumulative.

To: ild who wrote (35800)	7/12/2005 1:35:21 AM
From: CalculatedRisk	Respond to of 110194

ild, I was half wrong: The B/D count is not updated with each revision. Q: Do the birth/death factors vary from first preliminary to final estimate? A: The birth/death factor for a given month does not change between 1st preliminary, 2nd preliminary, and final estimates. bls.gov But I was correct about the rest ... Q: Can I subtract the birth/death adjustment from the seasonally adjusted over-the-month change to determine what it is adding to employment? A: No. Birth/death factors are a component of the not seasonally adjusted estimate and therefore are not directly comparable to the seasonally adjusted monthly changes. Instead, the birth/death factor should be assessed in the context of its effect on the not seasonally adjusted estimate. Contrary Investor was comparing B/D to SA numbers. That isn't correct, B/D is a component of NSA numbers. You made me go read about it again!