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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (42533)	7/12/2005 12:02:46 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69801

Housing starts up 7.2%, driven by condo market Much of the spike because of Toronto Demand shifts from detached homes EMILY CHUNG BUSINESS REPORTER Last summer's hot sales of Toronto condos drove an unexpected jump in housing starts last month. Canada-wide, construction began on 237,200 new home units, at aseasonally adjusted annualized rate, in June, a 7.2 increase compared with May and higher than all 20 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey of analysts. The numbers included 54,800 units in the Toronto area. Much of the spike nationally came from the Ontario region, said an economist for the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. "A good chunk of (the spike) came from the Toronto census metropolitan area, particularly the condo apartments sector," said Ted Tsiakopoulos, Ontario regional economist for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. Though the numbers were higher than predicted, they weren't completely unexpected. They reflect soaring sales of condo apartments last summer, said Jason Mercer, CMHC's senior market analyst for the GTA. "The developer is looking to see an 80 per cent pre-sold level before they start to build." Tsiakopoulos noted sales of condo units typically take nine to 12 months to translate into housing starts. The sudden sharp increase in June was likely a blip, said Mercer. "When you have one project that has two, three-hundred units," he said, "if you have a few of those come online in one month, that can certainly cause a spike like that." Overall, housing starts have risen 2.5 per cent in Toronto in the first half of this year compared with last year, driven mainly by high-rise condominium construction. Starts of multi-family dwellings rose 17.1 per cent while construction of singlefamily dwellings fell 14 per cent compared with year-to-date figures at this time in 2004. Mercer predicts building will be frantic next summer, too. "We've seen sales at or above levels last year," he said. It's part of an overall shift in demand for multi-family dwellings such as condo apartments and townhomes, said Tsiakopoulos. "Single detached prices . . . in most cases are outside of the range of the average first-time buyer. We are starting to see the condo market benefiting from this trend."