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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ild who wrote (35925)7/13/2005 7:46:52 PM
From: russwinter  Respond to of 110194
 
<Whoever bought a house in CA two years ago sits on at least 40% equity now.>

I'm seeing one year appreciation numbers (in Calf) of about 8-10% now and through May (June and July looks worse), see Dataquick in the news right column:
dqnews.com

and about 25% for the previous year,so entirely depends exactly when they bought. A bunch of it occurred with subprime in early 04, they missed the big appreciation because they fueled it. Besides how many of these people have just sat on their "equity"? To begin with many set up piggyback loans over the equity, or are already negatively amortizing IOs or refied ARMs as the six month and one year teasers come off. I think many have already had a big friggin' party and have spent most of it, and are all levered up. Equity, what equity, just increasingly larger payments?



To: ild who wrote (35925)7/13/2005 8:01:44 PM
From: piggington  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
Russ does raise a good point (that I hadn't thought of) that these people might have already HELOC'd the equity out of their homes to buy new cars, etc etc. But if they haven't, they can definitely get some nice loans...

These kinds of complexities are why I'm focusing more on looking for defaults than on guessing when resets will start causing pain.

rich