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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (35928)	7/13/2005 7:43:19 PM
From: piggington	Respond to of 110194

I agree that "in over their head" crowd will run into trouble soon... but I have been watching notices of default and they have been trending down all year (from an already pretty low level). It just doesn't seem like a lot of homeowners are in trouble YET. As far as shifting psychology, that's also something that I believe will take time. Folks like us are really tuned in to market shifts, but the SD masses still think RE is going up like a rocket (even though there have been numerous media articles to the contrary). Those who acknowledge the flattening of prices just believe it to be a pause before the inexorable climb continues. The article I wrote about here: econo-almanac.com was written after almost a year of price flatness and declining volume... but the people interviewed are still almost impossibly optimistic. The blind bullishness has now been entrenched for so long that it's gonna take a while to turn around. The apparent lack of "weak hands" (as far as I can tell jobs/default data, anyway) combined with the continued optimism make me think the market's not under real pressure yet, despite the inventory build. rich PS - Russ, can you email me at rich@richtoscano.com?