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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (36080)	7/15/2005 11:25:26 AM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

What is core service inflation? All the services I use have raised prices hugely in the past two years.

To: ild who wrote (36080)	7/15/2005 11:48:00 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Fri Jul 15 2005 11:31 trotsky (frustrated@water pumping charges) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved it's annoying and obviously a negative, but i think they can deal with it. JD: yes, you did mention that you're valuing it at 1.20. i don't disagree with that assessment. whether it will rise more depends on how the Rand and the gold price develop from here. imo all the South African gold stocks are likely to become outperformers in the next upleg. their performance relative to the XAU is subject to alternation. after a long phase of underperformance, a phase of outperformance can be expected. leadership in the sector has frequently changed...this is quite normal during secular bull markets. Date: Fri Jul 15 2005 11:26 trotsky (JD@NorthWest) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved for a while the restructuring looked promising, but then the Rand continued to climb. my major contention w.r.t. DROOY has always been that as a marginal producer, it offers strong leverage. let's not forget, while you were correct to be bearish on it on the way down, you were just as bearish when it went from 75 cents to $5.50 in 2001-2, as the top perfomer in that period. if your message is that it's a low-quality company, no-one will dispute that. but that's not the point imo. the important thing is that it is just as likely to vastly outperform the sector during upturns as it is likely to underperform during downturns. as to its management, it may not exactly be top-notch, but it sure is a vast improvement over the previous Kebble reign, which almost hedged the company into oblivion right at a 20 year low in the gold price ( not to mention the fraudulent Indonesian takeover ) . for all the mistakes that were made, the acquisition of the Porgera stake rates definitely as an unqualified success. Date: Fri Jul 15 2005 11:15 trotsky (@DROOY) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved if one compares DROOY's performance vs. the 'best of the bunch' gold stocks that have also outperformed the XAU since the May lows, it appears that it's a very good stock to own during upturns in the gold sector that coincide with a weaker Rand ( conversely it's of course one of the worst to own during downturns and strong Rand phases ) : finance.yahoo.com Date: Fri Jul 15 2005 11:08 trotsky (JD@DROOY) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved actually, the price at which i thought it was a buy was $1.45 - i didn't expect the market to react so forcefully to the widely expected disastrous results at NorthWest and believed Porgera would more than make up for it. then again, i almost always mention that one should use stops...and i've never claimed infallibility. in any event, the stock remains a trader's delight due to its volatility. since it hit its lows it has outperformed the XAU by about 40% ( closing low basis - on an intraday basis it was much larger ) , and i expect this outperformance trend to continue over the next two years or so. finance.yahoo.com Date: Fri Jul 15 2005 10:49 trotsky (JD@DROOY) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved it may have been down on the JSE, but in New York trading it's one of the best performing gold stocks so far today. Date: Fri Jul 15 2005 10:34 trotsky (doran, 8:47) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved foreigners starting to pile into overpriced US real estate is as reliable a sell signal as you will ever get. Date: Fri Jul 15 2005 10:33 trotsky (Big Bob asks) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "What the Heck is a "crude" energy price???????" it's that special energy price used by BLS and the dept. of commerce...the one that always falls, regardless of what happens in the real world. 'crude' is probably a typo actually. it's the 'good' or 'feelgood' energy price. the question is if your local gas station will let you fill up at the official feelgood price. i have a nagging suspicion that it won't be possible. Date: Fri Jul 15 2005 10:15 trotsky (addendum @XAU) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved gold stock money flows and recent COMEX trading volume on occasion of PoG declines actually suggest that these supports WILL most likely hold. also, GLD assets have risen into this correction, and up until now that has always been a short term bullish sign. the sentiment picture is largely NEUTRAL, with a slight giddiness bias, but refleshingly skeptical compared to the sentiment froth in the broader stock market. Date: Fri Jul 15 2005 10:11 trotsky (re. XAU) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved horizontal support at the 90 level seems important to me...it needs to hold on a closing basis, otherwise the probability of a new downleg being underway rises sharply. similarly the PoG should find support at the 416 level - which is both the site of the most recent reaction low ( approximately ) as well as the 1996 high, which makes it very important as well.