Here We Go Again - Debunking Another Slanted Poll From 
    The Washington Post

    For about the 9 millionth time it's up to us to tell you 
    why the latest MSM poll, this one from the Washington 
    Post, which purports to show that President Bush and his 
    policies are as popular as Michael Jackson at a Boy Scout 
    meeting, is flawed. 

          Party Leanings 
          30% Democrat; 
          31% Republican, and 
          34% Independent

    Sounds fair you say (even though the 2004 exit poll 
    showed R's and D's split at about 37%).....utill you read 
    the next question and you find that the respondents 
    "lean" towards the Democrats by a percentage of 48% to 34%

    Age of Respondents - The poll also over samples the 
    number of 18-29 year old voters, the age group that voted 
    most for Kerry. In 2004, 17% of the electorate was 
    between 18-29, and Kerry's advantage among them was +9%. 
    In the Post's poll that age group was 21% of the sample. 

    Income Level of Respondents - Next take into 
    consideration the annual income of the Post poll's 
    respondents. In 2004, 45% of the electorate was making 
    under $50K, and voted for Kerry 55-44%. But in the Post's 
    poll, 55% of respondents make under $50K. That's a huge 
    jump in likely Democratic voters among the Post poll's 
    respondents.

    Power Line - I also liked this comment by professional 
    pollster Robert Moran:

    Please keep in mind that most media produced polls are 
    not very good, are done by the lowest bidder in the 
    cheapest possible way, and are generally biased in their 
    wording and flow. The best polling is the polling done 
    for private clients that is never released, because this 
    polling is done to find where voters really are and to 
    make campaign decisions, not advocate a position or add 
    juice to a story.

    That it consistent with our experience; we sometimes have 
    access to polling done by campaigns, and it always turns 
    out to be more reliable than newspaper polls.

    Having said that, it shouldn't be a surprise that lots of 
    people (whatever the right number may be) don't think the 
    Iraq war is worth the cost. Why would they? Anyone who 
    relies on the newspapers believes that: 

    1) we went to war only because of Saddam's WMDs, and 

    2) there weren't any WMDs.

    Further, the casual news consumer never hears about Iraq 
    except when there is an explosion. There was an increase 
    in support for the war following the elections in 
    January, but that was the last time most people heard any 
    good news.

    If I were a liberal, I'd be frustrated that so many 
    Americans continue to support the war, despite a near-
    blackout on the reasons for doing so.

    Sure enough: they over-sampled Democrats. If you look at 
    page 16 of the poll data, which can be downloaded from 
    the Post's article, it discloses that 35% of the poll's 
    respondents were Democrats, while only 28% were 
    Republicans. Given that slightly more self-identified 
    Republicans than Democrats voted in last November's 
    election, this represents an egregious, seven-point over-
    sampling of Democrats. No wonder the poll data are bad 
    for Republicans.....

    ....poll that asks, "Would you support or oppose changing 
    Senate rules to make it easier for Republicans to confirm 
    President Bush's judicial nominees?" Not surprisingly, 
    given the wording of the poll, a huge majority of 
    respondents said they oppose the Republicans....

    As I opined yesterday, I thought that the AP-Ipsos poll 
    was a phony. Today, thanks to the GOP publishing the 
    specifics of the polling, I've got proof of the phoniness 
    of the polling.

    Forty percent of those surveyed said they were 
    Republicans & 50 percent Democrats. The largest age 
    group, 31 percent, was between the ages of 18-34.

    In exit polling at the 2004 election sites, party 
    registration was evenly split at 37%. This poll is also 
    fatally flawed in making the best age cohort for Dems the 
    biggest cohort of the polling. 

    Also keep in mind that the AP-Ipsos poll isn't a reliable 
    measure of public opinion. Last fall, they consistently 
    misreported the state of the presidential race in Kerry's 
    favor, with 1 such poll just the week before the election 
    showing Kerry winning 52% of the vote.

    More Unusual Demographics In Media Polling

    I have often written about the suspect adjustments made 
    to the sampling on CBS polls, which skew the results so 
    that they put the Bush administration and the Republicans 
    in a harsher light than the raw data indicates. While the 
    new Washington Post/ABC poll doesn't appear to employ the 
    same "weighting" technique that CBS used to shift its 
    demographics to give the Democrats a four-point edge that 
    its sample didn't support, the Post/ABC sample itself 
    appears very suspect. 

    Question 904 asks respondents to identify to which party 
    they lean the most

          Democrats:   48%
          Republicans: 34%
          Neither:     16%

    A new Gallup Poll reports that President Bush’s approval 
    rating has fallen to 46%. The internals of the poll are 
    quite favorable to Democrats, so it looks like we are 
    doomed next year.

    Well, not quite.

   “In the survey sample, 36% called themselves Democrats, 
    29% Republicans. Including those who “lean” toward a 
    party, 51% were Democrats, 40% Republicans.”

    CBS Poll: Behind The Numbers

    The new weighted numbers increase Democrats from 34.3% of 
    the sample to 36.3%, while dropping Republicans from 
    33.9% to 31.9%, creating a gap that went from 0.4% to 
    4.4% in favor of Democrats. The CBS weighting puts 
    Republicans on the same footing as independents, an 
    unusual and unrealistic model for any polling sample. 

   "It's not the first time that CBS skewed its polling 
    samples to get the desired results"

    In early October 2004, Newsweek released a poll 
    immediately after the first presidential debate....
    ....Newsweek was basing its headline "The Race is On" and 
    accompanying story on a comparison between its two most 
    recent polls. The problem, though, was that the polling 
    data was inconsistent. The October Newsweek poll sampled 
    more Democrats than it did Republicans....

    So why the breathless headlines?

    ...."As a result, the opportunity for honest debate was lost."

    Redirection: How the MSM Plays Games With the Numbers

    As usual, a closer look at the numbers reveals the lie. 
    Let’s take a look at the three most recent Job Approval 
    polls, by CBS, Quinnipiac, and the CNN/USA Today/Gallup 
    cooperative. 

    On the face, it would appear that Bush’s numbers are 
    slipping to the mid-to-low 40’s, but that claim does not 
    stand up to inspection.

        Polling Dissonance

    ....with rare exceptions the media’s political opinion 
    polls tend to overstate Democrat support and 
    simultaneously to understate GOP support. That’s been 
    going on for years and years and years.

    To illustrate the harsh reality of media polling 
    dissonance, we’re going to start with last year’s 
    election cycle:

          Florida - 2004

    October 30, 2004.
    Source: CNN/Gallup/USA Today
    Poll: Kerry allegedly leads by three points, 49-46

    October 31, 2004
    Survey USA
    Poll: Bush allegedly leads merely by one point, 49-48

    November 1, 2004
    American Research Group
    Poll: Kerry allegedly leads by two points, 50-48

    the actual results were:

    November 2, 2004
    Source: Voters
    Bush wins the state by five full percentage points, 52-47-1

        ALERT! GALLUP POLL BIAS!

    Do you remember the Gallup Poll that had President Bush 
    with a 45% job approval rating? Well, the new poll has 
    President Bush moving up to a 46% job approval rating. 

    However, the sample in the former poll was 33% 
    Republican, 32% Independent, 34% Democratic. 

    The new poll, that only has marginal improvement in his 
    approval rating, is only 29% Republican, 31% Independent, 
    and 38% Democrat.

    If this were 1980, that poll might, might be accurate. 
    This is 2004, and the GOP is at parity with the 
    Democratic Party.

    In other words, add 4% to the Preisdent’s job approval 
    rating in the new poll, and you have his real rating.

        Oh, Those Polls! - 6/12/2005 

    Just as an aside, the Rasmussen Reports poll on President 
    Bush's job approval shows the President at 50% approve...
    ...just about where its been all year; so much for the 
    concept that his support has been steadily dropping all 
    year, which is the gist of what other polls have shown.