Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (36214)	7/17/2005 10:07:36 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

As I am not a "gold bug" I got less enthusiastic about this article - beware of making decision just because some one else thinks like you - you both may right but also both of you may be wrong <GG> The stock market as a whole is up and therefore can be that gold stocks are lifted also

To: orkrious who wrote (36214)	7/19/2005 10:55:35 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Tue Jul 19 2005 10:43 trotsky (meanwhile in the bond pits...) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved with the recent large increase in the speculative net short position in bonds and notes futures and the Rydex bond ratio soaring back to the 20 level ( meaning: Rydex timer bond short positions are 20 times larger than long positions ) , the market's structure has returned to at least mildly bullish. this is also confirmed by a recent JPM client survey that revealed 52% bears being opposed by a mere 5% bulls ( remainder in the 'neutral' camp ) . Date: Tue Jul 19 2005 10:34 trotsky (infidel) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved please apprise us of your new technical assessment now that the XAU has recrossed 90. are buy stops being hit? Date: Tue Jul 19 2005 10:31 trotsky (frustrated) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved in this context it's interesting that Wall Street strategists collectively have now they're most bullish posture since the 2002/3 lows in the stock market. even the handful of previous bearish hold-outs has capitulated utterly. the same is true of fund managers. Michael Metz, a hitherto bearish money manager who regularly argued the bear view of things in CNBC's 'bull/bear debate' segment announced his complete capitulation last week - not only has he thrown his entire bearish reasoning overboard ( in spite of the evidence remaining unchanged ) , he now promotes overweighting of equities in model portfolios. finally, everybody has become convinced that neither high energy prices nor rising short term interest rates can possibly harm the stock market. however, as i recently pointed out, the OECD's leading indicators indicate there's a strong possibility that a global recession is imminent. Date: Tue Jul 19 2005 10:15 trotsky (@stock market) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved as i've mentioned recently i believe the broader stock market is close to a major intermediate term top. in addition to virtually all sentiment and positioning indicators showing an unseemly amount of bullish giddiness having gripped market participants, NYSE member firms have been net sellers of stock in 11 of the past 12 reporting weeks. there's a two week delay in the reports, but according to the most recent one, the selling has accelerated to its fastest pace since the March top in the first week of July. in fact, the 5 week moving average of member net selling has now plunged to the depths last seen in the two weeks just prior to September 11 2001, when NYSE members miraculously divined in the nick of time that the market would suffer a sharp fall. aside from this 'special situation' type selling, the recent plunge in the 5 week ma is unprecedented in the last 2 decades of this statistic. apparently member firms once again discern something on the horizon that other market participants fail to see. while it's unknowable what exactly makes them believe that the market is set to fall, it is important that they apparently DO so believe. by the way, the pre-9-11 selling need not be a sign of sinister machinations. it is possible that they simply observed strange trading patterns that led them to conclude that someone else with superior knowledge of a future development was taking bearish positions and they went with this flow of market-immanent information , so to speak. this time the selling is not so concentrated in a very tight time frame, in short it's unlikely to be discounting 'event risk'. the selling has been steady and was evident even when the market recently made short term lows. i conclude it's based on a dim view of future fundamental developments. Date: Tue Jul 19 2005 09:30 trotsky (Donald) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "...vanquishing the inflation dragon is after all a monetary policy maker’s chief objective." ROFLOL...they are the ENGINE of inflation. 'vanquishing it' is only their purported, officially stated, objective, in order to manage inflation expectations. as long as those remain subdued, they can inflate and inflate and inflate. if a central bank really wanted to vanquish inflation once and for all, it would simply abolish itself. just as von Mises said when he was asked what he would do if he were appointed minister of economics ? his answer: "Resign".