To: KLP who wrote (125755 ) 7/17/2005 3:13:43 PM From: KLP Respond to of 793964 Is an oil-shale industry in West’s real interest?gjsentinel.com Sunday, July 10, 2005 If they stopped to think about it, perhaps the growing number of federal lawmakers covetously eyeing northwestern Colorado’s Piceance Basin as a potential domestic version of Saudi Arabia might realize there are good reasons why it is not. A congressman need not be a geologist to understand that in much of Arabia, any old Tom, Dick or Mohammed needs only to punch a hole in the desert sands and — abracadabra! — there is sufficient underground pressure to provide the high flow rates requisite to drive copious amounts of black gold to the surface. That same non-geologist/congressman should also be able to understand that extracting the two trillion barrels — yes, that’s two trillion barrels — that are estimated to be locked away in western shale deposits (the resource is actually more similar in nature to limestone, but that’s another story) is quite a different matter altogether. Two trillion, of course, is an awfully big number. Two trillion is 2,000 billion. Or, putting it in the only terms that a good portion of Congress is likely to understand, two trillion barrels of shale oil is roughly eight times all of the proven oil reserves in Saudi Arabia or enough oil to fully meet the United States’ current demand for petroleum well into the latter half of this century. Thus, given the estimated size of the West’s vast shale oil deposits, perhaps Rep. Jim Gibbons of Nevada and Rep. Chris Cannon of relatively nearby Provo, Utah, and other lawmakers like them can be forgiven their rev-those-engines enthusiasm for yet another crash shale-oil development program with the federal government acting as the leading accomplice. At least credit Cannon for understanding that commercial-sized oil-shale developments are not the stuff of which rest lightly on the Western landscape. In an interview with The Daily Sentinel last week, the Provo lawmaker minimized the functional utility of the 160-acre oil-shale research and development tracts that the Department of Interior is proposing to make available to the nation’s current generation of Exxons, Texacos, Unocals and the like. “It’s got to be a huge operation,” Cannon quite correctly told reporter Gary Harmon. Unfortunately, few Coloradans — and that includes virtually all of the state’s public officialdom ranging from local county commissioners, to the governor’s office, to the state’s nine-member congressional delegation in Washington D.C. — seem to have little clue as to how huge the operative word “huge” is with respect to commercial-sized shale-oil operations. One rule of thumb that any young reporter covering the natural resource beat quickly learned a quarter century ago was that one ton of good-quality oil shale, rich in the crude hydrocarbon commonly known as kerogen, potentially could yield about one barrel of shale oil. (There are 42 gallons in each barrel.) Note that the preceding rule of thumb is predicated on one ton of “good quality” oil shale. There are thousands of acres of shale deposits in the Green River formation straddling northwestern Colorado and northeastern Utah that are more than 15 feet thick and yield as little as 15 to 20 gallons of oil per ton. Imagine, if you can, the development of a 1-million-barrel-a-day commercial oil-shale industry existing between Rifle and Vernal, Utah. That’s the number that was routinely bandied about as feasible back in the unlamented days of President Jimmy Carter’s Synthetic Fuels Corp. The “conventional” process of developing oil shale historically has contemplated a massive mining operation combined with an above-ground retorting process which essentially “cooks” the kerogen out of rubblized bits of shale. Even the dimmest-bulb booster of a major regional commercial oil-shale industry can do the math on this one. A 1-million-barrel-a-day oil-shale industry potentially may have to be built on an entirely new 365-million-ton annual hard-rock mining industry. Heck, Colorado’s booming coal industry “only” amounts to roughly 40 million tons of production a year, a level that is limited primarily by the state’s railroad infrastructure. And where is the water to support a major regional oil-shale industry to come from? According to another old rule of thumb of the natural resource reporting beat, it takes roughly three barrels of water to process one barrel of shale oil. And that’s only the half of it. I still recall a Sentinel editorial in the early 1980s which characterized as “moondrift” a notorious Exxon “white paper” which maintained that this region could support a 1-million-barrel-a-day commercial shale-oil industry. It’s still moondrift, even with oil at $60 a barrel. However, even if Exxon knew what it was talking about a quarter century ago, is a major oil-shale industry in the West’s best interests? Seems to me that the answer is obvious.