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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (36287)	7/19/2005 1:15:31 AM
From: Umunhum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

You and I have diverging opinions about what is going to happen to interest rates. You believe that the U.S. Gov. has an unlimited checkbook, I don't. I think it was Stephen Roach that said that America is absorbing over 70% of the world's savings and if we continue on our current trajectory we will be using over 100% by '09 which is an impossibility. Anything can happen short term, long term interest rates have to go up. Right now the TNX chart looks overwhelmingly bearish (rates are going up) and the momentum indicators I use say short. When the dollar starts its free fall, the central banks of the world are going to cash in all their U.S. securities for commodities and interest rates are going to go through the roof. My investment strategy is long oil, long commodities, short the dollar and short TNX. If I am wrong about interest rates, I will more than make up for it by going long gold when Greenspan stops raising interest rates.