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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Dale Baker who wrote (1801)7/19/2005 11:45:42 AM
From: TigerPaw  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 541965
 
It's hard to think of a major insurgency in the last 100 years that didn't end either in victory or more often, political accommodation

I think the jury is still out in Northern Ireland, Kashmir, and of course Palestine.

TP



To: Dale Baker who wrote (1801)7/20/2005 6:29:41 PM
From: TimF  Respond to of 541965
 
It's hard to think of a major insurgency in the last 100 years that didn't end either in victory (through the collapse of the target regime) or more often, political accommodation that defused the grievance they fought for.

Its not that hard. Malaysia is an good example, but far from the only one. Another example is Saddam's destruction of the Shia insurgency (and he would have probably taken down the Kurd insurgency as well if we didn't institute the "no fly zone" and otherwise aid the Kurds). True Saddam's regime has finally collapsed but that was do to a US led invasion not as the result of the insurgency. There have been several other less well know insurgencies in the Middle East (less well known to Americans at least) that have been put down. The insurgency in Ukraine was put down by the USSR after WWII. A number of insurgencies have been put down across the world, and probably a greater number have been contained, dragging on without causing major damage. (Or course if you directly effected by the relatively minor damage it will seem pretty major to you, even if it is small on the scale of the whole country).

Even in Vietnam the insurgency was a lot more contained than most people think. After Tet, the Viet Cong were greatly weakened (but the NVA was still strong and became more active). South Vietnam didn't fall to an insurgency it fell to a conventional invasion. The results where different than in Malaysia largely because there was no communist North Malaysia with a large army, strong motivation, and super power backing.

OTOH major insurgencies usually take awhile to put down and a lot of damage is caused in the process, and most of the insurgencies that are not tiny that are put down quickly are only put down through massive oppression and destruction. (for example Saddam putting down the Shia)

Tim