Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (36310)	7/19/2005 12:26:55 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Date: Tue Jul 19 2005 12:10 trotsky (XAU put/call volume ratios) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved over the past three trading days, put volume in XAU options has exceeded call volume every day, but yesterdays surge in pessimism was noteworthy, as the volume ratio came in at 5.95 ( 3789 puts traded vs. only 637 calls ) . Date: Tue Jul 19 2005 11:53 trotsky (art) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved it sure looks like the swami is aware of the Baltic dry freight rate index. i would suggest that it's that index, and not the stars, that has prompted his most recent 'commodity crash' prediction. Date: Tue Jul 19 2005 11:03 trotsky (frustrated@BIS) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i haven't seen that piece before, but frankly i doubt that the Fed's policies are in any way proscribed by the BIS. it may be true that there are disagreements regarding monetary policy conduct between the Fed and the BIS ( it's noteworthy in this context that the ECB's chief economist Otmar Issing usually also sounds as if he completely disagreed with the Fed's approach ) , but the argument that the BIS can force the Fed to adopt a certain course is very far-fetched. Date: Tue Jul 19 2005 10:57 trotsky (Heavy Metal) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved it's true, the falling dollar has been a boon for the stock market for quite some time, and it's reasonable to conclude that a rising dollar would have the opposite effect. of course, in the past few months this correlation has broken down somewhat. unfortunately that is open to a variety of interpretations - either it's a lag phenomenon, or the market doesn't believe the dollar's new uptrend will hold, or the correlation has simply ceased to work. in this case, only time will tell. also, i would urge not to come to hasty conclusions based on the currency CoT reports. this is a case where the speculators seem to be aligned with the trend ( contrary to the bond market, where they are still fighting the trend ) . it's hard to dispute that the DXY chart looks bullish here, and rate differentials continue to work in the dollar's favor ( what's more, the market has decided to focus on this point to the exclusion of everything else ) . i for one don't doubt the long term bear case for the dollar, but the short to medium term outlook is not cast in stone just because the speculators are holding large net long positions. if you look at the charts of currency CoT reports you will notice that very large speculative net positions often appear in the middle of a major move and tend to persist until it ends.

To: ild who wrote (36310)	7/19/2005 2:16:42 PM
From: anachronist	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Some anecdotal evidence from Los Angeles. At the local bowling alley, there is a bartender who works my league night. She is young (maybe 23-25) and not very bright (slow to fetch drinks, make change, doesn't recognize regulars). Last time I was in there, I heard her talking to an older patron about how house prices should start dropping soon "You know, like they did in the 90's." So the older patron asked if the typical $800,000 house would cost $500,00 soon. No, she said, maybe $750,000, but prices would continue declining for about 5 years. A relative of mind has a husband who is a general contractor. These people are very bad with money, and constantly have to receive help from their parents, even though they are pushing 40 and have 4 kids. They rent an apartment, but last year they started making noise about buying a house. IMO, this was due to talk from her sister-in-law, who cashed out of the CA market, and bought a house for cash in TX. Just last week, however, the search was called off. The husband has concluded that this is the top of the market, and they are better off waiting. I don't think he has made the connection between that conclusion, and what will happen to his business and employment prospects. These opinions are atypical of the normally bullish opinions I hear, and they are from people with a vested interest in house price declines. However, opinions of this sort are new from this class of person. In the last few years, they were much more likely to express a fatalism that they would never be able to afford a house.

To: ild who wrote (36310)	7/19/2005 2:58:50 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

ild, how are the price trends in the area where you sold since your selling? do you think you timed it OK? would you do anything differently today?

To: ild who wrote (36310)	7/19/2005 3:43:11 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

ild, I live in the OC and I checked the Register this AM. Check out the Front Page story: ocregister.com (It downloads a PDF with the front page). That 1296 sp ft house (aka "dump") sold for $600K. "Sergio and Monica Anaya and their two children left their rental and bought this three-bedroom Costa Mesa home after signing two loans (including an interest-only mortgage) and taking on two boarders who occupy one of the bedrooms. The sellers, George and Virginia Cummins, moved to a bigger home in the Yosemite area with their five children." ROFLOL.