Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Green who wrote (35907)	7/21/2005 2:03:28 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Japan RE bubble was totally different than anything presently in the U.S. "totally different"? not really. some substantial differences, but also many similarities. in the end, all bubbles are the same, driven by easy credit and easier gains, they become ends in themselves, ultimately becoming the tail that wags the economic dog, until too much debt and assets are committed to them, and they implode.

To: Don Green who wrote (35907)	7/21/2005 11:59:49 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

Japan RE bubble was totally different than anything presently in the U.S. and really shouldn't be used for for comparisons for what is happening in the U.S.. Here are the differences. I have talked about them before. 1) Demographic problem in Japan vs immigration and higher birth rates in the US 2) Higher savings rate in Japan vs the US 3) Way higher debt levels in the US 4) Way less available land in Japan #1 is an inflationary plus for the US #2 #3 and #4 are deflationary minus's for the US 0% savings are in US is not sustainable and saving more is deflationary. We have a long ways just to get back to historic average. Bigger debt overhang is deflationary. Japan proved the argument "they do not make land any more" does not hold up, but we still have more available land than they do So.. I do not know how you balance all 4 of those things out as #1 and #3 are both huge, but arguably in aggregate the problem and starting point is worse in the US. To be fair, call it even. Then what? Then we follow the path of Japan. Mish