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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (126613)	7/21/2005 4:41:26 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793670

No doubt things can change, but there is nothing on the macroeconomic horizon suggesting to me that there is anything positive that can take place. And I look, believe me, I look. The budget deficit will get bigger if the tax cuts are made permanent. In addition, there is a huge unfunded liability about to hit, namely, the Medicare Rx benefit. And if you don't think the housing bubble is going to burst and cause lots of pain, then you don't remember the tech bubble. The housing bubble is simply the result of the Fed's turning on the money spigot so as to not let us sink when the tech bubble burst. It created another bubble in the process. The Chinese currency refloat does nothing substantive. We are screwed if they decide that they hold too many of our T-bills and need to get rid of them or stop buying them--actually, sales of T-bills to foreigners have decreased drastically in the last couple of months. Would you continue to buy notes from a guy who is in debt up to his ears? Look, I am by nature an optimist, but there is precious little on the macroeconomic side to be optimistic about as respects the US economy. It will take time, perhaps a couple of years, but these macroeconomic imbalances are going to re-balanced, and it will hurt you, me, and Joe Six Pack like hell when it happens. Well, maybe not me, I'm getting ready, with a little luck I'm not going to get caught with my pants around my ankles.