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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Johnston who wrote (36022)	7/22/2005 3:48:52 PM
From: GraceZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Would you be buying real estate at current prices ? I'm selling some and holding some, not buying. I might do a swap if the idiot buying one of our properties ever succeeds in getting financing. If I didn't own a primary residence I might wait and I'd be furiously cut throat with investment property at this point. I sure as hell wouldn't be doing bonehead moves like selling my primary residence in order to rent so that I could buy back in lower later. I just acquired (my father left it to us) a share in a Florida home which I think is very reasonably priced even though it has experienced rapid appreciation in the last few years. I'm selling it because I can't see owning a house with 5 other siblings....but I have little doubt that the house I'm selling will be worth a lot more in the future, like five-ten-twenty years from now. I'd hold it in a heartbeat if not for my sisters and brother needing the cash from the sale. Every single time we bought RE (1981, 1987, 1991, 1994) we bought it at what I thought of as too high a price. would you still buy it, if its price had tripled in the 3 years just prior to your decision to buy it ? What is the long term trend? When reversion to the mean occurs it frequently does it in very short periods of time. Like in Baltimore, RE experienced flat to declining prices for more than ten years, so when RE moved here it recovered the ground to the long term trend in three short years. If you look at the long trend it barely covers the loss due to inflation and depreciation over twenty years. One of the most important lessons I learned in watching any market is that price contains no predictive information. You cannot predict future price by the movement of past prices. That said, it is bounded by rationality, in theory. Clearly zero is a more firm bound than anything on the upside. Consider that you've been continuously predicting hyper-inflation on this thread. If you really believed that you'd have been buying RE with both fists.