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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: regli who wrote (34046)	7/22/2005 3:40:31 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Hi, this is Tim Hannagan and it is Friday, July 22nd and this is my weekly review- C O R N: Monday’s started with our weekly export inspection report showing 32 m.b. were inspected for near term export up from 21 the week prior. The better inspections come as Fourth of July holiday shortened export days caught up. We still came in under a year ago of 35 mb.b with inspections down on the year 125 m.b. Demand remains soft. After the close Monday our crop condition report showed 55% of the crop in good to excellent condition versus 58 the week prior and 76 a year ago. Every key midwest producer declined except Indiana. 49% of the crop was sulking or at key yield development time. On Monday’s update I look for western belt states that declined to improve and eastern and central states that improved last week to decline leaving for little change overall in condition. Thursday’s weekly export sales report 596 t.t. of corn was sold last week up from 323 the week prior but 20% under our four week average. Demand remains a non-pricing factor. This week’s rains were a big advantage to western grain belt of Iowa and Nebraska but central and southern Illinois and Indiana fell short. We have 20 days of key yield development left before the trade sees the crop as done. With 2 b.b. in reserve we have margin for growing error. With some rain forecasted Monday and Tuesday we could get a break early but buy as midweek turns drier into August 4th. Buy September corn under 2.30 to 2.25. B E A N: Monday started with a neutral demand report with our weekly export inspection report showing 2.4 m.b. were inspected for near term export, down from 6.0 the week prior but equal a year ago. Inspections are up 200 m.b. on the year. Monday’s crop condition report showed 53% of the crop was in good to excellent condition off 1% from the week prior and 15% behind a year ago. 16% was at the key pod setting stage. Monday’s update looks to come in around unchanged. Thursday’s weekly export sales report showed 65.7 t.t. of beans were sold last week, 56% under our four week average. This came as big buyer China was absent from buying as a major currency redirection was in process. China’s revaluation of its currency will be a positive factor for demand near and long term. By the end of next week we will see key midwest bean producers entering the key pod setting stage when yields are made or last. Everything up to this point has been trading emotion and not production facts. Last year after a wet May, June and July and drop in prices as traders saw a record crop we turned hot and dry in August and rallied one dollar that month. Next week is our transition week between root and stalk development and August 1st to August 31st when yields are made and last. We should not expect a big break as weather premiums are gone but a 50 cent rally is unlikely as well. Early week could bring rain with coverage of 50% say wxrisk.com. If some rains do develop early and give us some lower trade look to be a buyer as wxrisk.com sees us drier from Wednesday through August 4th. Support on September beans lies at 6.68. W H E A T: Monday’s weekly export inspection report showed 17.5 m.b. were inspected for near term export up from 12.4 the week prior but under a year ago of 22. This number continues to show a weak demand picture. Monday’s crop progress report put winter wheat harvest at 79% complete. Spring wheat condition came in at 75% G-E condition versus 78 the week prior but over a year ago of 68. 91% is at full development. Thursday’s weekly export sales report showed 587 t.t. of wheat was sold last week versus 308 the week prior and 16% over our four week average. It came in slightly under a year ago and needs to be 650 t.t. or more to be bullish. It is a neutral demand indicator. September wheat enters the week with support down at 3.22 then 3.15. With wheat poised to follow corn and beans, any move lower early week near 3.22 area be a buyer as the call for warmer drier conditions Wednesday to August 4th should bring feed grains up with wheat following. All wheats fundamentals are bearish. We are fat with winter wheat harvest inventory. Demand is soft, and spring wheat harvest begins next month. The bullish side is small speculators and funds are all short and may need to buy out if corn and beans take off on foul weather. Therefore we are in a followers roll.