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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (36697)	7/22/2005 5:41:57 PM
From: RealMuLan	Respond to of 110194

>>Everything seem to be about abolishing volatility, but the Boyz in Congress will have little patience with just a 2% revaluation.<< What China has done is similar as what they have done textile dispute with EU and the US. At the beginning, China voluntarily imposed tariff on 70+ types of textile exports, but EU then still insisted on some restriction. Then China eliminates all the self-imposed tariff, then EU became softer, then sat down to talk, then got into some middle ground, and avoided an all-out trade war. So now China has done what it can for now, and if the US still not satisfied, and insisted on that 30% sanction, fine, go ahead. China will have some strong reaction too, including retreat from what they have promised, to open agricultural market, insurance market, and banking sector, etc... So in the end, the US will lose more than they take the original deal. >>Secondly, token open Pandora's box changes like this attract even more capital flows:<< Could be. But up to now, all those hot money already flowing in to China, unless they used on Real estate, they have not got what they want. And I read that China has taken some new measurement to restrict the hot money flowing in. How effective it is, still remain to be seen. I think what China will do is to appreciate RMB 1-2% a year for the next several years. And smart hot money will go somewhere else for higher return, only the idiot will wait in China for that 1-2% each year.