Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (36736)	7/23/2005 12:11:11 PM
From: GST	Respond to of 110194

I expect the yuan to appreciate about 5% per year over the next five years. China can easily make this up by improving productivity -- I expect they can increase productivity at closer to 10% per year -- their cost advantage over us will grow, not shrink, in coming years. By the way, Japan has moved enough manufacturing to China that it will not matter too much where the yen goes. China has immense engineering capability and is intimately tied to Chinese production and, increasingly, Chinese engineering. They might not like each other -- but their fates are joined. The US is rapidly loosing its traditional comparative in brains and management capability to other countries. This alone would be enough to seal our fate. You might want to think more deeply about the role of brains versus the locus of production -- the days of US manufacturing are mostly over, and, no matter how far we lower our standard of living, they will never return. The odds of us lowering our standard of living are, however, very high indeed.