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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (251)	7/23/2005 3:37:16 PM
From: philv	Respond to of 50652

Strong reasoned arguments, but they are based on a dramatic slowing economy, not just in the US, but also in Asia. And if that happens, as industrial activity declines, and depression and poverty sets in, then yes of course your projections are most likely. But I think even a slowdown will not change the fundamentals much. The US is not the world, and Asia's rapidly increasing demand is what is putting pressure on supplies. Even if the US slows considerably, that slack will be rapidly tighten the supply picture again. In the longer term, in my opinion, it isn't so much a supply problem rather than a price problem, because at higher prices, a lot of marginal wells can be brought on, as demand slackens. But it all takes time. The fruit hanging low in the branches has been easy picking, the rest will take much more effort. I don't know if you read this piece: "PARIS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- North Sea production could show its largest fall ever this year as Norwegian production has tumbled beyond expectations. Meanwhile these and Chinese economic figures are confounding oil bears like the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC." "Firstly, figures out from Norway show their North Sea production fell year-on-year by 700,000 barrels per day (bpd). Quarterly production is also down. Figures for the second quarter of 2005 are 300,000 bpd lower than the first." resourceinvestor.com Those figures, if accurate, cannot be lightly dismissed.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (251)	7/24/2005 1:08:21 AM
From: jim_p	Respond to of 50652

Good Post and a nice thread!! Jim

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (251)	7/24/2005 1:13:17 AM
From: grusum	Respond to of 50652

Slider, i agree that the cure for high prices is high prices. however, while we may know that prices are highER, how can you tell that prices are truly 'high'. i thought home prices were high years ago... as compared to now, they don't seem so high.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (251)	7/24/2005 7:45:29 AM
From: siempre	Respond to of 50652

Slider, enjoy lurking here & enjoy your site....thought you might be interested in a New York Times article I posted @ SI this morning re. the Plame affair & Iraq deception.... Message 21535581

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (251)	7/24/2005 8:15:07 AM
From: el_gaviero	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50652

This post has some typical Sliderisms in it, the most obvious being a straw man that he sets up and then knocks down. Peak Oil people are not blind fools, or any more blind fools than any other collection of humanity. I don’t know anybody out there in the Peak Oil World who says that crude prices are going to go up towards the sky forever & ever. Most of them that I read are quite realistic, and the good ones do what all good investors do --- they pay themselves from time to time. I think, in fact, that for the last two or three years Slider has not played the oil market very astutely (after years of brilliance, by the way, when he was a seer, in tune with the zeitgeist, and able to read the oil market like a book). Thinking the party was going to be over at midnight, he left too early, but it is now dawn and they are still on the floor boogieing. My guess is that Slider left a lot on the dance floor. As a precautionary measure, I would say that if I were out of sync, I would level at least with myself. One can’t always be in tune with the zeitgeist but one can at least try to be in tune with oneself. We’ll know when Slider IS BACK when his rhetoric gets creative again, as it was during his heyday. I say all this because I miss the old, creative Slider at his rampaging, exuberant best. This new paranoid phase, with dubious ideas about using oil to crush China (or whatever it is that he is saying) and his recycled rhetoric, is ..... alas....actually ...... quite ..... boring.