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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (36134)	7/24/2005 9:34:16 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

One has to figure that the bulk of ARMS are 5 year and were made between the years of 2001-present. So the first set of ARMS is probably set to reamortize and at the same time those homeowners are sitting on handsome profits which they probably want to monetize. Come 2006 the people whose loans readjust in 2007 will want to sell, the 2008 crowd will put houses up for sale in 2007, so on and so forth. If I were equity trading, I would say the support is 2002 prices for the most bubbly areas, which is also the point where we started seeing a gross divergence from rent. Thereafter, housing appreciation will be capped in California, New York and other bubble areas for some time to come - it will not be a V-shaped recovery.