To: Tommaso who wrote (34174 ) 8/25/2005 9:25:20 PM From: Haim R. Branisteanu Respond to of 116555 Asian bird flu outbreak 'could trigger 1930s-style collapse' By Malcolm Moore (Filed: 26/08/2005)telegraph.co.uk An outbreak of Asian bird flu, which experts said yesterday is bound to hit the UK, could trigger an economic collapse similar to the Great Depression of the 1930s, two financial analysts warned yesterday. In a lengthy research report titled An Investor's Guide to Avian Flu, Sherry Cooper and Donald Coxe warn that the food, tourism and insurance industries could be devastated in a relatively short time. c Lee Jong-wook: millions and millions of deaths The two analysts, who work for BMO Nesbitt Burns, a Canadian bank, said: "The combination of collapsing demand from China and India and the likelihood of a collapse in demand for housing and cars in the OECD nations would mean prices of base metals and steel would plunge." They also said companies would be hit by panicking staff and that "rates of both absenteeism and death would be sharply higher than should be necessary". Yesterday, the World Health Organisation said it was stepping up its fight against bird flu by securing enough doses of the Tamiflu anti-viral agent to treat 3m people. "If it hits, and we are unprepared, there will be millions and millions of deaths," warned Lee Jong-wook, the head of the WHO. The risk of an outbreak has risen since the virus spread into Russia, although it has yet to be passed from human to human. Asian bird flu has killed 50 people since 2003, and forced millions of poultry to be slaughtered. The two analysts said that the world would be better placed to deal with a new epidemic, since the internet could allow people to shop from the safety of their homes. They warned not to invest in IT shares though, because most IT companies rely on the Far East for their components.