Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (36238)	7/25/2005 10:34:40 PM
From: jrhana	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Hey I enjoy the back and forth here and see no need for personal attacks just because someone is on the opposite side. Who knows where the future goes? Anything is possible

To: John Vosilla who wrote (36238)	7/26/2005 1:56:43 PM
From: jrhana	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

I have actually found common sense and intuition to be the best guide along with informal conversations with dispassionate, knowledgeable local observers. In fact I have had the opportunity to talk with several local real estate agents in a non-business setting (ie they are not trying to sell me anything). If they seem reasonable and intelligent, I generally try to pump them for their current observations; over the years, they have been more on the mark than many of the posters here. I have found the academic geniuses using <real due diligence and knowledge> to have been so far completely useless. I do believe that local factors are equally important as gross macroeconomic winds. I think the influence of foreign money in select markets has been underappreciated. It does make intuitive sense here to me that many real estate markets have become over-extended ie they represent tired bulls. How much they will correct or rest and for how long and for how much is totally up in the air IMO. I personally underweight the opinions of academic type gurus who have been completely wrong about everything for many years-particularly when they become hysterical. I somehow feel sure that the grand Miami tradition of Condo overbuilding followed by a deep slump in prices will continue. If I am lucky, I hope to pick up a nice penthouse with an ocean view at bargain prices. I doubt single family homes on prime lots in Coral Gables will fall nearly as much in value-if they fall at all (ditto for Georgetown). Maybe someday I will really be lucky and find a bargain in San Diego <g> Message 21542766 Incidentally I prefer the term real estate bull to bubble. When one says bubble, you are using a word with extreme emotional connotations- I believe the word itself can cloud one's judgement. I really don't think that a house selling for $600,000 when it should really be, say, $400,000 compares to a tulip selling for $600,000 when it really should be worth about $5. BWTHDIK