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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (34242)	7/26/2005 2:00:55 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 116555

as they should be, no? how else are they going to get net short at the top for the ride down? g

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (34242)	7/26/2005 2:34:38 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

I did not either. In fact, If I gave you the text that was posted on Minyanville with that chart you could not (at least I could not) tell whether the guy was trying to say it was bullish or bearish. Mish

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (34242)	7/26/2005 5:05:45 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Hi, this is Tim Hannagan and it is Tuesday, July 26th and the markets are closed- CORN: Yesterday, we got a series of reports. First, our weekly export inspection report came out showing 38.9 million bushels of corn was inspected for near term export up from 32 the week prior and 34 a year ago. Year to date inspections are 1.526 b.b. off from 1.647 a year ago. Demand remains a non-pricing factor. Monday’s crop condition report showed 53% of the crop was in good to excellent condition down 2% from the week prior and 24% under a year ago. 79% of the crop is at key yield development time. Key midwest producers fared like this: Illinois 13% G-E unchanged on the week. Indiana 46% up 7. Iowa 67 up 1. Nebraska 75% unchanged. Missouri 34% down 5 and Ohio 47 up 4%. Since two of the three dries todate states either improved or remained unchanged I see the report as neutral to only marginally negative for pricing considering that those states who fared poorly Missouri and Nebraska look to improve on next week’s update as rains this week benefit them. Now what? Monday saw lightly lower trade with Tuesday seeing light gains as corn struggles with our early week rains and how much fell where and who missed out. Going to wxrisk.com the weather site, it looks like the western plains of Nebraska and Iowa along with northern states Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota saw the biggest rain totals while Missouri, Illinois and Indiana missed out for the most part. But, Wednesday looks to bring rain to southern Illinois, central and southern Indiana and Missouri. This could lead to a soft tone early Wednesday. September has support at 2.27 then 2.23. Buy dips and look for drier conditions Thursday to next Wednesday. BEAN: Monday’s first report was our weekly export inspection report showing 7.5 m.b. of beans were inspected for near term export, up from 2.8 the week prior and 4.7 a year ago. Year todate inspections are 1.041 b.b. versus 839 m.b. the year prior. It is a friendly demand indicator. Monday’s crop condition report showed 54% of the crop was in good to excellent condition up 1% from the week prior but down 15% from the year prior. Key midwest producers read like this: Illinois 23% up 4% from the week prior Indiana 51 versus 43. Iowa 67 unchanged. Ohio 53 versus 48. Nebraska 56 down 61 and Missouri 27 versus 36. With our driest states todate Illinois and Indiana improving and those who unimproved Nebraska and Missouri getting rain the last 48 hours I see the report as neutral with the pod setting stage still ahead of us. The pod setting stage of key yield development came in at 36% versus 16 the week prior and five year average of 26%. Key midwest producers our at and average of 30% so we can realistically say we are beginning our key yield time through August 25th. We got our wish Monday a break on September futures down to 6.68 support to buy. Tuesday brought 27 cent gains early after traders moved in to add weather premium now that pod setting is far more ahead than expected. We pulled back late to close up4.6 cents as rain is called for in our southern and central regions of Illinois and Indian. Wednesday before we turn dry again into the next 7 days. With 90% of our key yield time ahead of us, I continue to look for dips to buy as long as August looks to come in like May, June and July warmer and drier than normal. Support on September now lies at 6.64 than 6.46. Buy breaks. WHEAT: Monday’s weekly export inspection report showed 17.9 m.b. were inspected for near term export, equal the week prior, but over a year ago of 12.6. Inspections year to date beginning the new marketing year June 1st are 109 m.b. versus 140 a year ago. I look at this as a neutral demand indicator for pricing. The crop progress report put winter wheat at 85% harvested. Spring wheat has 98% of the crop at key yield heading time with 70% in good to excellent condition down 5% on the week and equal a year ago. We have been declining the past several week’s but the numbers are still high. The report is neutral to slightly negative for pricing. Plenty of fresh inventory and soft demand leaves wheat fundamentally bearish, but wheat will continue to follow corn and beans as funds continue to buy the board and not just what market is at yield time. September wheat fins support at 3.20 then 3.15 with resistance at 3.50.