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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (37094)	7/27/2005 11:16:08 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Schaeffer's Media Outtakes: The Allure of Cold-Hard Cash Bernie Schaeffer 7/27/2005 9:49 AM ET "With the Fed likely to raise rates two or three more times this year, 'you're looking at the average money fund ending the year with a yield of about 3.5%,' says Peter Crane, managing editor at iMoneyNet.com, which tracks money-fund yields. 'From where rates were, that's huge ... 'When interest rates rise, bond funds tend to get hurt,' Mr. Crane says.'I think some investors will see that decline, see a 3% yield on the money fund and think, "This is a good idea again."'" ----(Wall Street Journal - 7/26/05) Schaeffer's addendum: The S&P 500 dividend yield is 1.7 percent, so if the above piece is correct, the yield on money funds will be double that of the stock market by year-end. Is anyone concerned about assets being drawn out of the stock market and into money funds? I think such a concern is quite legitimate. Bernie Schaeffer schaeffersresearch.com

To: ild who wrote (37094)	7/27/2005 1:20:47 PM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 110194

>>>Investors Intelligence 7/27 Bulls 55.9% Bears 22.6%<<< Holding RYVNX, 200% inverse of ^NDX.

To: ild who wrote (37094)	7/27/2005 1:33:12 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Date: Wed Jul 27 2005 11:33 trotsky (Hambone) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "Given that the general market trend has been higher lately, that comment, coming from you, really surprises me in light of your contention that PM stocks tend follow the market in general" as i explained way back when, a positive correlation predominates in the short to medium term, a negative correlation in the long term. since i do expect the broader market to tank, i'd like to see some evidence that the long term negative correlation trend is taking over. Date: Wed Jul 27 2005 10:50 trotsky (Hambone) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved my comment actually doesn't really rise to the level of conclusion yet. as long as the support holds, the probability of an upside break-out still exceeds the probability of a downside break-out imo. however, to become truly confident of that outcome i'd like to see some decoupling from the general market trend. all i'm saying is that today's action reduces that confidence...it's a heads-up that the character of the action must change asap. still, on balance the technical backdrop looks more positive than negative...sentiment remains neutral, but both the daily charts and money flows can imo be counted as positives. Date: Wed Jul 27 2005 10:25 trotsky (@pm stocks) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved it seems the idea that the sector could profit from rotation has died a premature death...instead it's back to following the broader market. this is a bit discouraging, as the gold indices are perilously close to support...also, they should by now have reacted to the recently strong money flow picture and it's not a good sign that they haven't.